Homestead Meadows North, TX Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Storm chances shift east on Sunday and Monday, limited mostly to Hudspeth and Otero Counties. A few storms will be capable of large hail, gusty winds, and excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- A few days of drier weather is expected midweek before rain chances return Thursday into next weekend.

- Typical late-October temperatures, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Discussion

Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The weather pattern will be somewhat less active this afternoon and evening as the large low pressure system near the Four Corners Region lifts out of the area to the east. the Sub-tropical jet remains near the area and will continue to help generate isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over areas east of the Rio Grande late this afternoon and overnight. The most likely areas of storm development will be in Otero, Hudspeth, El Paso Counties and locations to the east. There will be a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but the most active period will be later in the evening after 9 pm when a short wave trough embedded in the flow pattern helps generate scattered strong thunderstorm development. The severe threat from storms will be reduced but still possible. There is a potential for excessive rainfall with flash flooding from a few storms, but should not be as widespread as previous days.

Monday should be a quieter day as the local forecast area will be west of the trough axis with a drier, more stable mass moving into the region. Short range models seem to reflect this with only a few brief isolated storms for areas east of El Paso in the evening hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry for southern New Mexico and Far West Texas as a dry westerly zonal flow sets up over the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal in most areas.

We will return to a more active weather pattern Thursday and Friday as another trough sets up on the west coast and a ridge builds over the Gulf Coast. This pattern will allow moisture back into the region that will help fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area both days.

The outlook for Halloween on Saturday looks dry with a short wave ridge moving over the state for a short period of quiet weather. Active weather returns to the area next Sunday as the trough on the west coast deepens and moves inland toward New Mexico.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VMC prevailing at local terminals today. Isolated TS across W TX and SE NM this afternoon and evening. Storms may be too far east to directly affect KLRU. Storms may develop close to KELP to mention VCTS this evening but not confident enough to say KELP may be directly impacted. Surface winds 170-200 at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming 320-060 AOB 5 knots tonight. Skies FEW- SCT080, SCT- BKN250 today with greater cloud coverage east of KELP.

Fire Weather

Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry conditions for Gila NF, but scattered thunderstorms are expected again across Lincoln NF this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and localized flooding. Prevailing wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph, with Good vent rates today. Lighter winds Monday/Tuesday will keep vent rates Poor to Fair through most of the afternoon hours.

Moisture shifts further east early this week, leading to a brief window of dry conditions area wide. Rain chances return Thursday into next weekend, leading to another round of wetting precipitation over the forested areas. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected into early November.