Hickory Creek, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Slightly drier conditions remain over the area through Monday.

- Weak upper level disturbances and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end chances for showers/storms Tuesday onward.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas will result in Caution conditions over the marine waters through Tuesday.

Discussion

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Benign conditions are expected tonight with light variable winds and mostly cloudy skies. The lows will be a few degrees warmer tonight, ranging in the mid 50s over the Piney Woods region, the upper 50s to mid 60s for the rest of the inland portions, and the lower 70s along the coast. We could once again see isolated areas with patchy fog developing during the early morning hours, and should burn off quickly around sunrise.

Models have backed off a little with tomorrow's rain chances, and now places the higher rain chances over Matagorda Bays adjacent waters. This coincides with my thinking yesterday, where I mentioned that I think we could still be influenced by the mid to upper level ridge positioned over Louisiana...enough to keep rain chances over most of Southeast Texas fairly low. The forecast now has less than 10% chance of rain for Monday for the majority of the CWA, accompanied by partly cloudy skies and east winds at 5 to 10 mph. Infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 mph will be possible closer to the coasts. The highs will generally be in the lower 80s, with isolated spots possibly reaching the mid 80s. Moisture from the Western Gulf will move in from the Matagorda Bay region Monday night, keeping skies mostly cloudy overnight. This will also bring in warmer nighttime temperatures, with lows ranging in the upper 50s over the Piney Woods region and the lower to upper 60s for the rest of the inland portions.

As an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains Tuesday morning, the mid level ridge will continue to progress further east, into Southeast CONUS. Having less of the ridge influence and a little more moisture to work with, rain chances will increase, mainly for areas west of I-45. Under a southeast flow, PWATs will continue to rise Tuesday night into Wednesday, ranging between 1.3- 1.8 inches and lead to slightly higher chances of showers and thunderstorms. East winds will briefly return on Thursday along with drier air, thus, we are not expecting as much rain activity that day. Advancing into Friday and Saturday, models point out another healthy surge of moisture moving through the region as a coastal trough potentially develops along the Texas coast.

Cotto

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the east-southeast today, becoming light and variable overnight into Tuesday morning.

Bailey

Marine

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Caution Flags remain in effect through Monday night for moderate east winds and Seas of 4-6 feet, possibly reaching 7 feet offshore. There is also a moderate to high risk for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches. Winds relax a bit and seas subside a foot or two Tuesday into Wednesday. Light to occasionally moderate east winds and seas between 3-5 feet will continue through the rest of the week.

Rain chances are expected to return this week as the ridge shifts east and surface moisture converges over the Western Gulf waters. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most days. Locally higher winds and seas could occur in and near strong storms.

Cotto