Wellsville, NY Weather

What Has Changed

Some patchy mist/fog was added to the major river valleys tonight.

Wind gusts were slightly increased tomorrow afternoon/early evening with the mainly dry cold frontal passage.

Key Messages

1) Continued high confidence in mainly dry conditions persisting until the end of the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will be situated south of the region with mid and upper level heights falling, as a cold front approaches to open the week. The mid-level flow becomes zonal with the strong ridge over the Southeast and Gulf weakening over the Northeast. Near ideal radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight with light to calm winds and initially clear skies before some high clouds increase well after midnight. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, as we tried to blend the NBM and MAVMOS guidance. Some patchy mist/fog may form in the Hudson/Mohawk River Valleys again, as the this morning, and near the CT River Valley near southern VT. Tomorrow, a cold front with limited low-level moisture moves across the region in the afternoon/early evening. A few showers are possible over the west/southwest Adirondacks with light rainfall amounts under a tenth of an inch. This front will bring an increase in clouds and breezy conditions with gusts from the northwest mainly 15 to 20 mph, though a few isolated gusts to 25 mph are possible. Max temps will be above normal tomorrow in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s. A colder and drier air mass builds back in over the region Mon night into Tue. High temps on Tue will run below normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s with lighter winds, as another strong Canadian surface anticyclone builds in.

Ideal radiational coolings are likely Tue night with cold temps with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. The air mass begins to modify by the mid week, as the sfc high shifts offshore, as temps trend to seasonable readings. The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal Wed night into Thu, as a warm front associated predominately with clouds moves through and another mainly moisture starved dry cold front pushes through Thu night thru Fri. Temps rise above normal to close the week. A few light rain showers may impact the locations west/northwest of the Capital Region. Next weekend looks to open dry with near to slightly above normal temps to close October. Many locations be close to two weeks without measurable rainfall.

Aviation

Through 18z/Mon...VFR conditions are expected to continue for much if not all of the upcoming TAF period. The exception will be whether any valley fog drifts into some of the TAF sites tonight. Will maintain previous fog mentions at KALB/KGFL though winds just above the surface tonight may be more W/SW versus N/NE from previous days which may drift any fog away from the terminal, especially at KALB. Variable winds at 5 kt or less this afternoon become calm tonight, then in various directions Monday morning at 4-8 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.