Saratoga Springs, NY Weather

What Has Changed

Behind a departing cold front, a dry air mass will pour into the region for Tuesday. Have lowered dewpoints on Tuesday afternoon during daytime mixing. Good radiational cooling setup for Tuesday night, so have leaned towards the lower end of the blended guidance for lows on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as well.

Key Messages

1) Continued high confidence in mainly dry conditions persisting through the end of the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A surface cold front will be passing through the region from west to east this evening. With limited moisture in place, no precipitation is expected with the crossing of this boundary, with just a band of clouds expected. Behind this boundary, winds will switch to the north for tonight into Tuesday. There may briefly be a gusty breeze with the passage of the boundary into tonight, but winds will decrease for Tuesday, as high pressure over Ontario builds towards the area. This will keep dry weather in place with a mostly sunny sky for Tuesday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Tuesday, with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the region with dewpoint values in the 20s. With the high pressure nearly overhead, good radiational cooling is expected on Tuesday night with clear skies and calm winds. Have lowered temps below the NBM mean, with widespread mid to upper 20s for min temps for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the dry and cold air mass in place, the only fog that develops will likely be over the immediate waterways.

As the high pressure drifts eastward, sunny and dry weather will continue into Wednesday. Temps will be a few degrees warmer compared to Tuesday, but most places will see highs in the 50s, which is close to normal for late October.

Temperatures will turn a little milder for Thursday, with valley highs back into the 60s with plenty of sunshine. Another cold front looks to cross for Thursday night into Friday. Some showers could accompany this boundary across the Adirondacks, but overall moisture is still limited and forcing isn't the best either. Most places will continue to remain dry. While it should be mild again into Friday, temperatures will return closer to normal for the upcoming weekend. As of right now, no widespread precipitation is expected through Saturday night. Some models show the potential for some rainfall for Sunday into Monday, but this is still far out enough to keep the forecast rather uncertain.

Aviation

Through 00z Wednesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as of 7:20 PM EDT, and expected to remain largely VFR through the next 24 hours. BKN mid-level (~5000 ft) clouds behind a cold front expected to linger through the next few hours. A few clouds 2500- 3000 ft possible at PSF with the upslope flow, but think these should remain FEW to SCT so will not put MVFR cigs in the TAF. Mid- level clouds dissipate overnight, with just FEW to SCT high clouds around through the day tomorrow. Behind the front, N/NW winds at 5- 10 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt expected for the first few hours of the TAF period, but then gusts diminish with winds largely 5-10 kt from the N/NE through the latter half of tonight and most of tomorrow. Winds diminish to 5 kt or less and shift to the E/NE at ALB/GFL/POU and to the NW at PSF heading towards sunset tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.