Royal Pines, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Low temperatures were nudged upward a few degrees for tonight.

Key Messages

1. Dry for the next seven days, with near to below normal highs through weekend before above normal highs return next week. Breezy northeast winds will develop east of the mountains over the weekend.

Discussion

Key message 1: Dry for the next seven days, with near to below normal highs through weekend before above normal highs return next week. Breezy northeast winds will develop east of the mountains over the weekend.

Overall, the weather continues to look benign across our region for the next seven days, with dry conditions persisting. The new guidance shows the upper level blocking pattern holding on longer into early next week, which is an interesting change, but ultimately just prolongs the quietness because we are in the favorable part of the block. The high-amplitude mid/upper ridge axis to our west supports a parent sfc high that drifts from the St. Lawrence valley this morning to the northern Mid-Atlantic region Sunday, resulting in a somewhat unusual cold air damming wedge with mostly clear sky. Thus, temps today in the area east of the mtns will be only five degrees below normal. The northeast wind will be the only clue that we are under a wedge. For tonight, there has been some concern about frost potential in the mtn valleys, but the trend in the fcst has low temps creeping upward a bit as we maintain a northeast wind, so only patchy frost is indicated in the headwaters of the French Broad River. Temps modify upward a degree or two for Sunday and continue on a warming trend through Tuesday when we end up a category above normal. If there's going to be any low-RH problems, it will probably be Tuesday. Another northern stream sfc high begins to influence our region by Wednesday with another dry wedge, so temps cool back down briefly before climbing above normal again for the end of the week.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: Strengthening East Coast high pressure will maintain primarily NE winds over the region through the period, picking up to 10-12 KT most of today. The exception is KAVL, where periods of SE may develop though with light enough speeds to prevail VRB. A shallow moist layer will persist beneath the subsidence inversion associated with the incoming airmass, such that patchy stratus or stratocu at low VFR to MVFR level are expected in portions of the Piedmont from approx. 09-15z, with restrictive cigs likely along the southeast-facing Blue Ridge Escarpment (NE of KAVL, W of KHKY) near daybreak. Retained a mention of FEW-SCT clouds at all TAF sites except KAND, as confidence is still low as to cigs at the sites, and cigs may be intermittent at best. Winds will weaken tonight; the pattern supports another possible patchy-stratus event near daybreak Sunday. In lieu of making a low-confidence mention for KCLT in this TAF, will see how clouds evolve this morning and consider adding a mention in the next cycle there and possibly at other sites.

Outlook: Breezy NE winds linger east of the mountains through Sunday. Dry and VFR through the middle of next week outside of the potential for mountain valley radiation fog/stratus each morning.