Oak Island, NC Weather

What Has Changed

As of 630 AM EDT... Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

As of 3 AM EDT... All sections have been updated except for the Key Messages. The Coastal Flood Advisory was extended through this evening's high tide for all tidal areas. A High Surf Advisory was issued for New Hanover County.

Key Messages

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, coastal breezes, and near to below normal temperatures through mid next week.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather through mid next week leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast at times but no significant rainfall is expected. Breezy conditions with gusts up to around 35 mph at times are also expected, especially near the coast, due to low pressure well to the southeast from near The Bahamas northeast to Bermuda.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected during each high tide cycle for the next several days along the SE NC and NE SC coasts, including the lower Cape Fear River. The highest tides should occur during the morning high tide cycles.

High Surf: High seas up to near 10 ft within 20 nm will likely lead to 6+ ft surf heights into early next week, especially for E-facing beaches. We have raised a High Surf Advisory for New Hanover County where confidence is highest in 6 ft breakers occurring starting today. In addition, the large waves coupled with high water levels should result in some erosion, especially for E-facing beaches.

Aviation

High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails. NE winds will prevail, gusting to near 20-25 kt during the daytime.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25 knots at times Sunday. There is a small chance of low clouds affecting the coastal terminals due to low-level clouds off the coast. High pressure brings dry weather and clear skies early next week.