Monticello, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Cold front is passing through MN this afternoon with much cooler temperatures expected through early next week. Trending warmer again later next week and next weekend.

- Multiple chances for rain through next week. Heaviest rainfall amounts expected across western MN Monday and Monday night.

Discussion

Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

At 2 PM, a cold front was evident on Doppler radar stretching from just east of St. Cloud south to Hutchinson and just west of New Ulm. Temperatures ahead of the front have risen into the mid 70s with a sharp drop into the 40s and 50s behind it. Clouds and showers have been persistent across western MN all day and are not showing signs of expanding eastward yet. The showers appear tied to a nearly stationary pwat gradient despite a progressive surface cold front. Eventually drier air aloft will spread southeast and focus shower activity farther south and east this evening. Due to ridging across the MS Valley, the 1-1.25 inch pwat plume won't clear the region and hang up across southern MN. This will keep low chances for showers going across southern/eastern MN and WI through Sunday morning.

An upper low over the Desert Southwest today will advance to the Rockies late Sunday. As it approaches, shower activity will increase across the central Plains to southern and western MN by Sunday night. The low will track from central NE to eastern SD to northern MN Monday into Tuesday. The best moisture transport will be confined to western MN and is where the best chances for a soaking rain is forecast. Rainfall totals of around an inch are likely across far western MN with amounts tapering off to the east. The system will exit to the north early Tuesday. Another disturbance will quickly follow Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing the next chance for showers.

A ridge will remain parked over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley through the rest of the forecast period. Southwest flow will bring another several disturbances northeast across the Upper Midwest, all bringing with them chances for precipitation. Predictability of each remains low and so PoPs are currently littering the forecast. As predictability increases over the next couple days we should be able to fine tune PoPs a bit better. Regardless of specific timing, it's looking like an active period ahead.

Temperatures will be cool to start the week, but then will warm back to the 60s and quite possibly 70s as the week wears on with broad southerly flow developing in advance of a larger scale system late week.

Aviation

Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

At TAF issuance time, the front is near RNH and past all the Minnesota terminals. By the time it gets to EAU winds will fall to more of a light and variable along the diurnal curve, so there will be less of a clear wind shift. Rain showers continue with a mostly VFR, but some occasional MVFR across central Minnesota. This will track to the east this evening into tonight. Another round of rain is expected on Sunday with a fairly scattered rain shower forecast. Impacts similar to today where it rains with a mainly light rain VFR impact, but some occasional more ceilings based periods of MVFR.

KMSP... With frontal passage behind us northwesterly winds to northerly winds will be with us this period. Some light rain possible around 02Z with VFR most likely, but kept a PROB30 for MVFR as we have seen some lower ceilings at times with this rain to the west. Tomorrow anther chance for scattered rain showers in the afternoon/evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...-RA/MVFR likely, chc IFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. TUE...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts. WED...Chc A.M. -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.