Brainerd, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Next chance of rain (20-40%) is Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Near-normal temperatures return Sunday.

Discussion

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Low pressure is moving across northern Ontario this morning with a cold front trailing into northern MN. Radar returns show some weak echoes across northern MN but with the dry air in the low levels we don't anticipate much of this activity to make it to the surface, at best expecting a few sprinkles. The frontal boundary will march slowly across the Northland today with winds turning from southerly to northerly with its passage. High pressure will build in behind the boundary with cloud cover largely clearing out by mid day. This will allow ample time for temperatures to recover with another warm day expected as afternoon high temperatures climb into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight, radiational cooling paired with lightly mixed winds and low level moisture could lead to areas of fog developing. HREF and REFS suggest a 30-50% probability of fog occurrence across the Northland.

Tomorrow:

Transient surface high pressure will drift eastward across the region Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Temperatures will remain well above normal as winds turn southerly. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 30s to around 40 degrees. Look for highs in the low 60s to low 70s, about 10-20 degrees above normal. Temps will be cooler for portions of the North Shore and Arrowhead due to on-shore flow. Those readings will be 5-10 degrees above normal with highs in the middle 50s to low 60s.

Friday through Sunday Night:

Aviation

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The center of high pressure will slide from west to east over the international border through Thursday morning then push farther into the Great Lakes during the day Thursday. Clear skies will prevail today through tomorrow across all TAF sites, with winds diminishing to under 5 kts this afternoon and continuing to drop to near calm this evening through Thursday morning. Clear skies with light winds will promote at least patchy fog development during the early morning hours, with the most susceptible sites being DLH-HIB-HYR while also possible at BRD. Have brought conditions down to 1-3sm at this point, but LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Once past sunrise and deeper mixing allows for slightly stronger surface winds and scouring out of the low level moisture, VFR conditions return by late Thursday morning.

Marine

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Southwest winds through the day around 5 to 10 knots. A front will pass over the Lake switching winds to out of the northeast tonight. Winds will continue to be on the light side until late Friday when southerly winds ramp up and could lead to hazardous boating conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.