Carmel Valley Village, CA Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Minor coastal flooding at high tide for Bayshore and Pacific Coast locations through much of the week

- Cool conditions through the week

- Rain chances late week into the upcoming weekend

Short Term

Issued at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

High cloud cover is streaming in from the west/northwest in advance of an approaching frontal system (largely expected to remain north of the region). As such, temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper-60s near the coast and low to mid-70s for inland areas away from the immediate coast and the interior.

Tonight and into Monday morning, expecting the aforementioned frontal boundary to push inland over northern California brining a slight chance for very light rain to the northern offshore waters and the Sonoma County coastline. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the lower 40s across the North Bay Valleys and far southern portions of the Salinas Valley Monday morning with the rest of the region expecting upper 40s to low 50s.

Temperatures cool some 5-10 degrees on Monday as a cooler air mass spreads southward across the region in response to the mid/upper level low pushing into the Pacific Northwest.

Long Term

Issued at 1226 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

Below normal temperatures are forecast to persist through midweek as the region with zonal flow to troughing persisting over the West Coast. However, dry conditions are forecast to prevail through midweek. It isn't until Friday and the upcoming weekend that we see rain chances return to the region as a cold front moves through Friday and into Saturday. There is low to moderate confidence of this occurring. However, there is still time for things to change so don't cancel your tick-or-treating plans yet!

Again, the most pressing threat this week will be minor to moderate coastal flooding along bayshore locations of the San Pablo, San Francisco, and Monterey Bays. The Pacific Coast gets added to the Coastal Flood advisory beginning Monday as we are expecting up to 1.9 feet of inundation above ground level. This is due to thermal expansion of the warm waters generated by El Nino and astronomical high tides through much of the upcoming work week.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Another VFR day is on tap for the region, with satellite showing only high clouds streaming over us. Tonight, the upper level trough will continue to track across the PacNW while troughing extends south. This will allow for onshore flow to take hold of much of the region and perhaps interact with the marine layer. Right now the most likely sites to see any marine layer action or stratus seem to be around the San Francisco/San Mateo Peninsula and around the Monterey Bay. Though confidence is moderate, so opted to keep the hint of lower clouds in the forecast rather than socking areas in. Should we see low clouds develop, the timing is currently between 6Z- 15Z with clouds lifting or mixing out by the late morning.

Vicinity of SFO...Quiet conditions continue as high clouds stream overhead. Winds are expected to become onshore later this afternoon, peaking between 10-15 kt, before decreasing to less than 10 kt during the overnight hours. As mentioned above there is signal for some lower clouds to move into the SFO region, right now models generally keep it west of the terminal and closer to the coast. Kept the hint of MVFR cigs in the TAF as a result, with clouds lifting to VFR cigs by late morning. Tomorrow afternoon, a strong push of onshore winds is forecast. This will be close to the end of the TAF cycle where we could see 15 kt sustained winds gusts up to 20-25 kt through the early evening. Moderate to high confidence in the forecast.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions and onshore winds are forecast for this afternoon. Tonight, the signal for some weak offshore or southerly flow before becoming more light and variable tomorrow morning. Models also show the potential for some MVFR cigs around the region but not fully socking us in. Opted to keep the SCT mention of MVFR cigs and wait to see how the models trend. It could be have a few hours of BKN to OVC MVFR cigs overnight, with skies mixing out by mid to late morning. Moderate confidence in the forecast.