New Kingman-Butler, AZ Weather

Key Messages

* Quiet and seasonable weather conditions through at least Wednesday.

* Chances of precipitation, cooler temperatures, and gusty winds return to the region late-week into the weekend.

Discussion

Today through Saturday.

Zonal-to-northwesterly flow aloft will result in generally quiet and seasonable weather through the first half of the work week. Conditions will remain dry and temperatures will hover within a few degrees of seasonal normals. A trough will push through the Intermountain West on Monday that will increase south-southwesterly winds across the southern Great Basin, with speeds generally between 15 and 25 mph. On Tuesday and Wednesday, expect similar wind speeds along the Colorado River Valley with wave heights between 1 and 1.5 feet at Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu. Otherwise, winds will remain generally light with afternoon breezes.

This weekend, a longwave trough will dominate the weather pattern and will return precipitation chances to the Desert Southwest late- week through the remainder of the forecast period. Several shortwaves embedded in the aforementioned flow aloft will help guide anomalous subtropical moisture into the region, with forecast PWATs over 200 percent of normal for this time of year across our southern zones. The closed low associated with the longwave trough will ride along the California coast as the weekend progresses, eventually weakening into an open wave as it moves inland and across southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona. That said, there remains a substantial amount of uncertainty regarding timing of the weather system, trajectory of the moisture flux, and strength of the low as it moves inland. Minor changes in the trajectory of the moisture flux (southwesterly vs. southerly) would result in a wide range of variance in precipitation amounts across the forecast area. Continue to check back to the forecast as we move through the work week if you have outdoor plans for Halloween weekend.

Aviation

For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain light and follow typical daily directional trends into the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable early Monday morning before settling from the east late tomorrow morning. VFR conditions will persist with increasing high cloud cover overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds across the region will remain under 10 knots and will follow typical, daily directional trends through the TAF period. Winds may become light and variable at times as winds transition. High clouds AOA 25 kft will increase across the area overnight.

Spotter Information Statement

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.