Dolan Springs, AZ Weather

Key Messages

* Gusty north winds will decrease throughout the afternoon with lingering shower and storm chances in northwestern Arizona.

* Quiet and seasonable conditions through at least Wednesday, with signs of a more active pattern returning late in the week.

Discussion

Today through Friday.

Early afternoon infrared and water vapor satellite imagery shows elongated troughing across the Southwestern US from the shortwave that dropped into the area last night. This shortwave was responsible for the overnight uptick in north winds across the region. These winds will gradually decrease throughout the afternoon. In addition to breezy north winds, Mohave County will see isolated showers and thunderstorms as this trough lingers across the area today. For the most part precipitation will be light. However, with the cold air aloft and lingering moisture, stronger storms will be capable of producing moderate-to-heavy rain. Nuisance flooding and isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible.

Weather will calm down heading into next week as the trough exits on Sunday. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are on tap for the first half of the week. Guidance continues to show the weather pattern becoming more active late next week as the subtropical jet draws moisture into the Southwestern US. Cluster analysis shows several variations of offshore troughing during this time, so there remains a fair amount of uncertainty, but there appears to be a good signal for the existence of an offshore trough and southwesterly flow over us. Should this come to fruition, we should see an increase in southwest winds and low to moderate (10-50%) precipitation chances around Halloween weekend.

Aviation

For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Northerly winds are expected to stick around through at least 08Z before diminishing and becoming light and variable through early Sunday morning. Winds are expected to become northeast to east in the afternoon with speeds around 7 knots or less. Clouds will dissipate overnight with mainly clear skies expected Sunday, although a few high clouds are expected to spread over the area late afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Generally clear skies with diminishing winds to less than 10 knots overnight. Skies will remain clear through much of Sunday, although high clouds will gradually spread across the region in the afternoon. Winds will generally remain under 10 knots through much of Sunday, with the exception of KBIH where afternoon southerly gusts to 15 knots are possible.

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