Morrilton, AR 72110 Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

-Near-normal to above-normal temperatures will continue through at least this weekend for much of the state.

-No appreciable rainfall is expected through the forecast period with drought conditions persisting.

-Low afternoon relative humidity values and drying fuels may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through at least Friday.

Discussion

Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

No significant changes to note w/ the new fcst update... Current WV sat imgry depicted Wrn US troughing, w/ ridging flow over the Cntrl CONUS. Objective sfc analysis indicated broad high pressure extending over much of the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Mid-South, promoting settled weather for the region the past few days.

Thru the fcst PD, model consensus remains centered on aforementioned upper level ridging persisting across the central CONUS, keeping a persistence-style fcst in place, w/ daily high temps in the upper 70s to low 80s...typically above-normal for most locations...and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and no appreciable rainfall expected.

Concerning drought and fire danger, a lack of forecast rainfall, and any recent substantial rainfall wl foster drying ground fuels (noted by fcst ERC values approaching >90th percentile over portions of Srn AR), and persisting to deteriorating drought conditions for much of the state. Additionally, very low afternoon RH values of 25 percent or less may contribute to daily elevated fire danger concerns through at least this weekend.

For the long term...Early next week, the aforementioned west coast trof wl slowly translate Ewrd over the Four Corners and Cont Divide by Mon, weakening as it does so. Locally, the center of the upper level high wl also shift Ewrd, positioning SWrly H500 flow acrs the Srn Great Plains. At most, this may drive some increasing low-level cloud cover over the FA thru the early portion of next week, and bring some slightly cooler temperatures, but unfortunately, no precip chances to mention.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Expect VFR condns to persist thru the new TAF PD, w/ winds becoming E-NErly Thurs aftn, generally less than 10 kts.

Preliminary Point Temps

Batesville AR 80 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 83 46 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 78 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 82 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 81 51 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 82 47 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 77 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 81 50 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 82 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 82 49 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 81 50 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 82 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0