Commerce, GA 30530 Weather

Key Messages

- Elevated fire danger conditions will likely persist for at least parts of the area through Friday afternoon due to low relative humidity.

- Rain-free conditions and near-seasonal temperatures will remain for the next 7 days, with a slight cool-down Friday through early next week.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 159 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Dry conditions and pleasant temperatures (within about 5 degrees of seasonal normals) are expected through tomorrow (Friday) night. Northerly flow aloft and high pressure across the Southeast will maintain zero chance for rain and very little in the way of clouds. Another Fire Danger Statement is in effect across most of north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening due to low relative humidity and dry fuels. Similar conditions tomorrow will lead to low relative humidity likely supportive of yet another Fire Danger Statement across at least parts of the forecast area. While winds remain relatively light, the dry air could support rapid fire development.

High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to be around 4-8 degrees cooler than those today, as something of a cold air damming "wedge" pushes across the forecast area with surface/low-level easterly winds and weak cold air advection (CAA) in tow.

Long Term

(Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 159 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Continued Dry and Mild Conditions:

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern into the the extended periods with high temps in the 70s and lows in the 40s. By Sat morning the main ridge will be centered over the New England states with its axis angled SW down the eastern seaboard and out across the LA/MS gulf coast. This ridge stays fairly stationary through the weekend with only a slight movement to just off the MA/ME coast line by Mon morning. This will but GA in more of an E to NE flow pattern and we could see a little bit of moisture return across the area from the Atlantic going into next week. As for now only expecting increased cloud cover across the state days 5 through 7. This ridge does weaken a bit by Tue/Wed as an approaching low pressure system moves E out of the Central Plains. The main low center is expected to track across the central Great Lake states Wed and into the New England states Thu morning. Its associated cold frontal boundary moves into NW GA around daybreak Wed and quickly sweeps through the state exiting the GA coast by sunset. The good dynamics and moisture with the front all push NE closer to the parent low center allowing this dry cold front to push through the SERN U.S. keeping things dry for north and central GA.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light (generally less than 6 kts) and variable in direction through tonight, likely waffling on either side of due north at times at ATL. Winds will pick up at 5-10 kts out of the ENE tomorrow (Friday) morning into afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence on all elements.

Martin