Dunbar, WV 25064 Weather

What Has Changed

06Z Aviation Discussion update.

843 PM Update...

Frost Advisory issued for the northern lowlands of West Virginia from 3 AM to 9 AM Wednesday morning.

708 PM Update...

~00z aviation forecast discussion.

129 PM Update... Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion. Continue the ongoing modification to afternoon dew points as regional observations show readings below central guidance.

Key Messages

1) High pressure ruling the roost through the weekend will continue to provide extended dry weather, with near seasonable daytime temperatures, while chilly overnights with patchy frost potential and river valley steam fog.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

843 PM Update... A Frost Advisory has been issued for early Wednesday morning as dew points have fallen this afternoon and failed to recover properly across northern West Virginia. Under clear skies and calm winds temperatures will easily reach the mid to upper 30s across the northern lowlands, especially the low-lying valleys where isolated pockets of sub-freezing temperatures could be possible.

129 PM Update... High pressure will remain anchored over the region through the extended forecast period. This will retain pleasant weather under its reign, featuring mostly clear skies and seasonable daytime temperatures. Overnight conditions will be much of the same each night, with river valley fog and patchy frost potential. For this evening, did not see any evidence for frost/freeze products needed in our remaining growing season zones.

Forecast soundings continue to show a vast layer of dry air parked over the region, which remains the main forecast challenge of this weather pattern. Central guidance continues to come in too high with forecast dew points, so opted to blend in higher resolution models that capture this afternoon drop into the 20s/30s each afternoon through the next few days. Otherwise, the forecast outlook remains on track from previous discussions.

Aviation

Dry weather continues through this TAF period (until 06Z Thursday) amid clear skies. The only aviation concern during this period is with river valley steam fog that has begun to develop across portions of the area. Coverage this morning will be similar to that of yesterday morning. Currently have VLIFR restrictions progged at CRW/EKN/HTS/PKB towards dawn. Any fog that forms will slowly lift / scatter from ~ 12-1400Z, with widespread VFR thereafter.

Calm flow for the remainder of the overnight will give way to light NNW to NNE surface flow on Wednesday. Flow goes calm after sunset.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog this morning, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with fog this morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.