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Polls and Forecasts terms
Opinion polls, approval ratings, prediction markets and the forecasts of who is winning.
Bellwether A place or group whose election results have historically matched the national outcome and are watched as an early indicator. Exit poll A survey of voters as they leave polling places, used to explain who voted and why rather than to project results alone. Generic ballot A poll asking voters whether they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress without naming candidates. Likely voter A pollster's estimate of who will actually vote, used to narrow a sample of adults or registered voters. Margin of error A statistic expressing how much a poll's result might differ from the true value because only a sample was surveyed.