European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
91%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate91%▼ 2
- Hike 1-25bps7%▲ 2
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps<1%
1 more
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
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ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
The odds
91%No change
- No change91%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase8%▲ 3
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 91% | ▼ 1 | 91¢ | 93¢ | $243.2K |
| 25 bps increase | 8% | ▲ 3 | 8¢ | 9¢ | $178.2K |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $15.1K | ||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $25.8K | ||
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $85.2K |
The same question on Kalshi
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
75%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase75%▲ 1
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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