ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
89%No change
- No change89%▼ 2
- 25 bps increase10%▲ 3
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
Install
European Central Bank rate decision in October (Oct 29, 2026 meeting)
The odds
90%Maintain current rate
- Maintain current rate90%▼ 2
- Hike 1-25bps8%▲ 4
- Cut more than 25bps<1%▼ 1
- Cut 1-25bps<1%
- Hike more than 25bps<1%
How the odds have moved
Maintain current rate: 91% on Oct 13, 90% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maintain current rate | 90% | ▼ 2 | 92¢ | 93¢ | 16.9K |
| Hike 1-25bps | 8% | ▲ 4 | 8¢ | 9¢ | 18.8K |
| Cut more than 25bps | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 956 | |
| Cut 1-25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 576 | ||
| Hike more than 25bps | <1% | 1¢ | 726 |
The same question on Polymarket
Shown side by side, not averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 1
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase2%
- 25 bps decrease2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase18%▲ 2
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
4.21%median
0.88%4.63%
Median 4.21%Middle half 4.06% – 4.33%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting37%
- April 2027 Meeting31%▼ 2
- March 2027 Meeting16%▼ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.