Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
The odds
72%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%72%
- Falls to 6.5%16%
- Falls to 6.25%10%
- Falls to 6%5%
- Falls to 5.9%3%
- Falls to 5.7%2%
- Falls to 5.5%2%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↑ 6.20% | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | ||
| ✓ ↑ 6.30% | >99% | ▼ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $29.4K |
| ✓ ↑ 6.50% | >99% | ▲ 13 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $6.9K |
| ✓ ↑ 6.75% | >99% | ▲ 2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5.5K |
| ✓ ↑ 7.00% | >99% | ▲ 10 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $8.0K |
| ✓ ↑ 7.25% | >99% | ▲ 11 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $3.3K |
| ↑ 7.50% | 72% | ▲ 1 | 70¢ | 74¢ | $1.2K |
| ↓ 5.50% | 2% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $2.9K | |
| ↓ 5.70% | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $12.2K | |
| ↓ 5.90% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $11.6K | |
| ↓ 6.00% | 5% | ▼ 2 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $4.0K |
| ✓ ↓ 6.00% | >99% | ▲ 27 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $673 |
| ↓ 6.25% | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $1.6K |
| ↓ 6.50% | 16% | ▼ 1 | 15¢ | 17¢ | $10.8K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Fed Decision in January?
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.