Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?
73%Lockheed Martin
- Lockheed Martin73%▲ 1
- Anduril28%▼ 1
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Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) Q3 total backlog be above __?
The odds
$282.43Bmedian
$150B$330B
Median $282.43B
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180B | 88% | 86¢ | 90¢ | $837 | |
| $210B | 84% | 82¢ | 86¢ | $299 | |
| $240B | 70% | 51¢ | 88¢ | $245 | |
| $270B | 65% | 36¢ | 93¢ | $289 | |
| $300B | 30% | 29¢ | 30¢ | $99.00 |
Related markets
All stocks & companies ›Which companies will the US take a stake in?
11%Lockheed Martin▲ 1
- Unusual Machines41%▼ 2
- Anduril21%▼ 3
- OpenAI14%
- Lockheed Martin11%▲ 1
13 more
- Anthropic13%
- TSMC12%
- Nvidia12%▼ 1
- IonQ11%▲ 2
- Boeing9%▼ 1
- Micron9%▼ 1
- Eli Lilly8%▲ 1
- Freeport-McMoRan8%
- SpaceX8%
- Pfizer5%
- TikTok US / Bytedance5%
- Palantir4%
- Samsung Electronics4%
Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
8%Lockheed Martin▼ 2
- Unusual Machines42%▲ 1
- Anduril21%▼ 7
- Neros Technologies19%▼ 1
- Lockheed Martin8%▼ 2
14 more
- Performance Drone Works14%▼ 1
- OpenAI11%▼ 1
- Anthropic11%
- TSMC11%▼ 1
- IonQ10%
- Palantir9%▼ 1
- Micron9%▲ 1
- Boeing9%
- Eli Lilly9%▼ 2
- Nvidia7%▼ 2
- Freeport-McMoRan7%▼ 1
- Pfizer7%
- TikTok US6%▼ 1
- Spirit Airlines3%
Largest Company end of December 2026?
80%NVIDIA
- NVIDIA80%▼ 5
- Apple17%▲ 2
- Alphabet2%
- Microsoft<1%
4 more
- SpaceX<1%
- Tesla<1%
- Saudi Aramco<1%
- Amazon<1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.42Thigh with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $2.42T.
- Reaches $1.5T93%
- Reaches $1.75T82%
- Reaches $2T69%
- Reaches $2.5T47%
- Falls to $800B3%
- Falls to $700B3%
- Falls to $600B2%
Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T
Anthropic IPO by __?
Nov 28, 2026even chance by
- October 15, 2026<1%
- October 31, 2026<1%
- November 15, 20266%▲ 2
- November 30, 202658%▲ 4
2 more
- December 15, 202667%▲ 6
- December 31, 202673%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.