What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Polymarket Closes Oct 31 · $86.7K traded · prices read 17 min ago

The odds

$789.13high with an even chance
SPY now 778.10 −0.06%

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $789.13 and as low as $763.44.

  • Reaches $78082%
  • Reaches $79047%
  • Reaches $80020%
  • Reaches $8108%
  • Reaches $8203%
  • Reaches $8302%
  • Reaches $8402%
  • Falls to $77071%
  • Falls to $76039%
  • Falls to $75025%
  • Falls to $74010%
  • Falls to $7308%
  • Falls to $7206%
  • Falls to $7102%
  • Falls to $7002%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $780

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
✓ ↑ $770 >99% ▲ 21 100¢ 100¢ $1.9K
✓ ↑ $770 >99% 99¢ 100¢ $438
✓ ↑ $770 >99% ▲ 48 100¢ 100¢ $184
✓ ↑ $780 >99% ▲ 22 100¢ 100¢ $4.1K
↑ $780 82% ▼ 14 79¢ 85¢ $2.5K
↑ $790 47% ▼ 20 46¢ 48¢ $8.5K
↑ $800 20% ▼ 13 18¢ 21¢ $10.8K
↑ $810 8% ▼ 3 7¢ 9¢ $8.2K
↑ $820 3% ▼ 1 2¢ 4¢ $4.0K
↑ $830 2% 0¢ 2¢ $328
↑ $840 2% 0¢ 7¢ $180
↓ $700 2% ▼ 2 0¢ 3¢ $3.6K
↓ $710 2% 1¢ 2¢ $7.3K
↓ $720 6% 5¢ 6¢ $3.0K
↓ $730 8% ▲ 1 6¢ 9¢ $6.3K
↓ $740 10% ▼ 7 8¢ 12¢ $8.0K
↓ $750 25% ▼ 1 23¢ 26¢ $8.6K
✓ ↓ $760 >99% ▲ 20 100¢ 100¢ $794
↓ $760 39% ▲ 5 38¢ 40¢ $4.6K
↓ $770 71% ▲ 9 70¢ 72¢ $3.4K
✓ ↓ $780 >99% 100¢ 100¢ $5.00

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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