Fed Decision in October?
80%No change
- No change80%▼ 3
- 25 bps increase19%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Swiss National Bank decision in December?
The odds
76%No Change
- No Change76%▼ 20
- 25 bps increase23%▲ 20
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
- 25 bps decrease<1%
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 76% | ▼ 20 | 75¢ | 76¢ | $12.0K |
| 25 bps increase | 23% | ▲ 20 | 22¢ | 24¢ | $15.4K |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | 0¢ | $2.4K | ||
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $2.9K | ||
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | 0¢ | $2.3K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting33%
- March 2027 Meeting17%▲ 1
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%▼ 1
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Fed Decision in January?
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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