Predictions › Central banks & rates SOFR for October 9, 2026 Kalshi Closes today 7:59 AM ET · 6.3K contracts · prices read just now
3.85% 3.92%
Median 3.87% Middle half 3.87% – 3.87%
Median: 3.87% on Oct 13, 3.87% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 71% Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 14% Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 9% ▲ 1 Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 5% 2 more Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 1% Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 1% Beth Hammack 67% ▲ 1 Lorie Logan 49% Neel Kashkari 39% ▼ 2 Michelle Bowman 14% ▼ 1 8 more Christopher Waller 14% ▼ 1 Anna Paulson 8% Michael Barr 5% Kevin Warsh 2% Lisa Cook 2% John Williams 2% ▼ 1 Philip Jefferson 2% Jerome Powell 1%
-0.50 5.50
Median 1.52 Middle half 0.43 – 2.70
3.4% 4.7%
Median 4.17% Middle half 4.07% – 4.27%
0 (0 bps) 97% ▲ 1 1 (25 bps) 2% 2 (50 bps) 1% 3 (75 bps) <1% 9 more 4 (100 bps) <1% 5 (125 bps) <1% 6 (150 bps) <1% 7 (175 bps) <1% 8 (200 bps) <1% 9 (225 bps) <1% 10 (250 bps) <1% 11 (275 bps) <1% 12+ (300+ bps) <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Settles on Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Trading closes Oct 13, 2026 7:59 AM ET
Traded 6.3K contracts
Prices read just now
Followed since Oct 12, 2026
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
Reading the odds Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
The strikes' odds give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile.
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Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use .