How many dissenting votes at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026)
1.51median
-0.505.50
Median 1.51Middle half 0.41 – 2.69
Install
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
The odds
68%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack68%▲ 2
- Lorie Logan49%
- Neel Kashkari39%▼ 2
- Michelle Bowman14%▼ 2
- Christopher Waller13%▼ 2
- Anna Paulson8%
- Michael Barr5%
- Kevin Warsh2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- John Williams2%▼ 1
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
How the odds have moved
Beth Hammack: 68% on Oct 13, 68% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Hammack | 68% | ▲ 2 | 65¢ | 70¢ | 6.3K |
| Lorie Logan | 49% | 47¢ | 50¢ | 2.7K | |
| Neel Kashkari | 39% | ▼ 2 | 36¢ | 41¢ | 2.2K |
| Michelle Bowman | 14% | ▼ 2 | 11¢ | 17¢ | 211 |
| Christopher Waller | 13% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | 16¢ | 310 |
| Anna Paulson | 8% | 4¢ | 12¢ | ||
| Michael Barr | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | 410 | |
| Kevin Warsh | 2% | 4¢ | 410 | ||
| Lisa Cook | 2% | 4¢ | 410 | ||
| John Williams | 2% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 3.3K | |
| Philip Jefferson | 2% | 3¢ | 2.3K | ||
| Jerome Powell | 1% | 2¢ | 1.5K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
71%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >071%
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 014%
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 09%▲ 1
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >05%
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
SOFR for October 9, 2026
3.87%median
3.85%3.92%
Median 3.87%Middle half 3.87% – 3.87%
Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.16%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.16%Middle half 4.07% – 4.27%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
80%chance▲ 3
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
- 1 (25 bps)2%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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