Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, 2026

Kalshi Closes Thu 8:25 AM ET · 535 contracts · prices read 33 min ago

The odds

201,912median
170,000230,000
Median 201,912Middle half 189,768 – 203,917

How the odds have moved

Median: 202,000 on Oct 13, 201,912 now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
At least 175000 100% ▲ 1 99¢ 1.00
At least 180000 99% 11¢ 1.00
At least 185000 99% 11¢ 95¢ 1.00
At least 190000 74% ▼ 28 68¢ 75¢ 34.00
At least 195000 74% 48¢ 66¢ 30.00
At least 200000 74% 5¢ 40¢ 2.00
At least 205000 12% ▼ 59 7¢ 16¢ 319
At least 210000 6% ▼ 9 2¢ 9¢ 147
At least 215000 4% 8¢
At least 220000 4% 8¢
At least 225000 4% 8¢

More on this question

All inflation & jobs ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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