US real GDP growth in 2036?

Kalshi Closes Dec 31, 2037 · 156.8K contracts · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

1.93%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 1.93%Middle half 1.49% – 2.44%

How the odds have moved

Median: 1.93% on Oct 13, 1.93% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
0.0% or Below 11% ▼ 1 6¢ 10¢ 9.0K
0.1% to 0.5% 6% 4¢ 5¢ 12.2K
0.6% to 1.0% 3% 2¢ 3¢ 8.5K
1.1% to 1.5% 5% ▲ 1 3¢ 5¢ 9.1K
1.6% to 2.0% 30% 18¢ 28¢ 7.9K
2.1% to 2.5% 23% ▲ 1 14¢ 20¢ 12.8K
2.6% to 3.0% 7% ▲ 1 3¢ 7¢ 15.6K
3.1% to 3.5% 2% 1¢ 2¢ 13.1K
3.6% to 4.0% 2% 1¢ 2¢ 12.7K
4.1% to 4.5% 4% ▼ 1 2¢ 4¢ 10.3K
4.6% to 5.0% 2% 1¢ 2¢ 13.1K
5.1% to 5.5% 1% 2¢ 10.2K
5.6% to 6.0% 1% 2¢ 8.0K
6.1% or Above 3% 1¢ 3¢ 14.2K

More on this question

All growth & recession ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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