Jobs numbers in October 2026?
54Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 54KMiddle half 20K – 101K
Install
How many government employees will Trump cut? (In 2026)
The odds
9%More than 100,000
50,000400,000
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 100,000 | 9% | 6¢ | 12¢ | 7.2K | |
| More than 150,000 | 7% | 3¢ | 10¢ | 7.6K | |
| More than 200,000 | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | 859 | |
| More than 250,000 | 6% | 6¢ | 8¢ | 2.3K | |
| More than 300,000 | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | 625 | |
| More than 350,000 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | 1.4K |
Related markets
All inflation & jobs ›Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
70Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 70KMiddle half 22K – 112K
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
84,522median
79,00093,000
Median 84,522Middle half 83,893 – 85,219
Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026
257,947median
230,000285,000
Median 257,947Middle half 255,316 – 261,196
Visitors to Florida in 2026
141.8median
134150
Median 141.8Middle half 140.3 – 143.3
Unemployment in October (In Oct 2026)
4.14%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.14%Middle half 4.06% – 4.22%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.