ADP employment change in Oct 2026?
62Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 62KMiddle half 37K – 88K
Install
ADP employment change in Nov 2026?
The odds
39Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 39KMiddle half 7K – 68K
How the odds have moved
Median: 39K on Oct 13, 39K now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25000 | 94% | 89¢ | 99¢ | 284 | |
| Above 0 | 79% | 74¢ | 84¢ | 11.00 | |
| Above 25000 | 64% | 59¢ | 69¢ | 258 | |
| Above 50000 | 39% | 34¢ | 44¢ | 314 | |
| Above 75000 | 19% | 14¢ | 24¢ | 52.00 | |
| Above 100000 | 9% | 4¢ | 14¢ | 56.00 | |
| Above 125000 | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | 2.00 |
More on this question
All inflation & jobs ›Jobs numbers in October 2026?
54Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 54KMiddle half 20K – 101K
Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
70Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 70KMiddle half 22K – 112K
Washington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
84,522median
79,00093,000
Median 84,522Middle half 83,893 – 85,219
Washington professional, scientific, and technical services employment at end of 2026
257,947median
230,000285,000
Median 257,947Middle half 255,316 – 261,196
Visitors to Florida in 2026
141.8median
134150
Median 141.8Middle half 140.3 – 143.3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Conservative. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Conservative index. Terms of use.