Debate Desk
Can America's Electric Grid Run on Wind and Solar Alone?
A grid must match supply to demand every second; wind and solar vary with weather, and today's storage cannot cover long lulls without firm power.
The claim
Advocates say that with enough turbines, panels, batteries and transmission lines, the grid could be powered by wind and solar alone. Costs keep falling, they say, and the remaining obstacles are political.
The answer in three points
- Electricity must be produced at the moment it is used. A grid operator balances supply and demand every second, and a shortfall can mean blackouts. Reliable power depends on sources that can be dispatched when needed, which wind and solar cannot do by themselves.
- Weather is not predictable at the scale needed. A winter storm can lower solar output and coincide with a calm, cold spell across a wide region, and the demand is highest at that time. Batteries today store hours of energy, and the shortfall may last days.
- Demand is rising. Data centers, factories and electric vehicles will need more power, and retiring firm plants while demand grows narrows the margin. A diverse mix, including gas, nuclear, hydropower and coal where it remains, keeps lights on and prices down.
A reliable grid needs many sources, and the test of a plan is whether the lights stay on during the coldest night of the year.
The numbers
- The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has warned in its recent reliability assessments that parts of the country face elevated risk of shortfalls during extreme weather as firm capacity retires.
- The Energy Information Administration reports that wind and solar together supplied about 14 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2023.
- The Texas grid operator, ERCOT, lost a large share of its generating capacity during the February 2021 winter storm, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation's joint report.
What they will say next
"Gas plants failed in Texas too." They did, and so did wind, and the cause was equipment not prepared for severe cold. The lesson is to winterize everything and keep a mix of sources, not to subtract any one source.
"Storage costs are falling fast." They are, and storage will play a larger role. Covering days and seasons with batteries remains very costly, and it should be compared with the cost of firm plants.
"Other countries run mostly on renewables." Some countries do, with large hydropower or with neighbors who supply backup, as Norway does. The United States has different resources and must judge for itself.
"Transmission can move power across regions." It can, and building lines is slow and often blocked by permits, which is a reform conservatives should support whatever the source.
Reliable and affordable power is the basis of modern life. Plans should be judged by whether the lights stay on.
"Offshore wind and long-distance lines solve the gaps." They can help, and they take years and large sums to build and often meet local opposition. A plan that depends on them should include an honest schedule and cost, with firm power as a backstop.