Debate Desk
Are Conservatives Anti-Science Because They Question Climate Policy?
Questioning a policy is not denying a fact; the science describes what is happening, and the choice of response is a matter of costs, values and judgment.
The claim
Critics say conservatives deny the findings of climate science and that their resistance to regulation shows contempt for expertise. The consensus of scientists, they argue, leaves no room for debate about acting at once.
The answer in three points
- Science tells us what is, and policy asks what to do. Whether carbon dioxide traps heat and whether the planet has warmed are questions for measurement. How much to spend, on what, and by when are questions about costs, trade-offs and values, which belong to voters and their representatives.
- Many conservatives accept that the climate is warming and that humans contribute, and argue about the response. They favor innovation, nuclear power, adaptation and growth, which make a society richer and better able to handle change. That is a policy view, and it deserves a fair hearing, not a label.
- Healthy skepticism about forecasts is part of science. Models have overstated warming in some cases and missed in others, and economic projections reach decades ahead with wide ranges. Asking about assumptions is not hostility to science. It is how science works.
A conservative who wants to be heard on this subject does well to say plainly what he accepts and what he questions, and to bring numbers to the argument over cost and benefit. The public can tell the difference between someone who engages with evidence and someone who avoids it.
The numbers
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's sixth assessment report, published in 2021 to 2023, states that human influence has warmed the climate, according to the panel's summary.
- The same body's reports present ranges of outcomes that depend on emission scenarios, with differences of several degrees by 2100 among them.
- The Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 were about 17 percent below 2005 levels.
What they will say next
"Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree." The figure comes from studies of papers that agree on a basic point about human influence, which many skeptics of policy also accept. It does not say that scientists agree on a particular tax, mandate or timetable.
"Delay is dangerous." Delay has costs, and so does acting hastily with measures that fail. The test of a policy is its results.
"Cost estimates are biased." Estimates from both sides can be, and publishing models and assumptions helps. A conservative who asks for them is helping.
"Weather proves the point." A single hot summer or cold snap does not settle a question about the climate, and arguments from one event mislead in both directions.
Fairness means accepting the facts and arguing the policy. Conservatives are willing to do both.
"Skeptics are funded by industry." Some are, and some advocates on the other side are funded by interests with a stake in subsidies. The remedy is to publish data and methods and to judge arguments on their merits, whoever pays for them.