Is China Just a Trade Partner and Not a Threat to the United States?

The claim

Some argue that China is a huge market and a source of affordable goods, that conflict would be disastrous and that talk of a threat is exaggerated by hawks and defense contractors. Engagement and trade, they say, will moderate the regime.

The answer in three points

1. Trade and rivalry coexist. America buys and sells a great deal with China, and the Chinese Communist Party is also building a military meant to challenge American power in the Pacific, claiming Taiwan and the South China Sea and threatening its neighbors.
2. The hope that trade would liberalize China has not been borne out. China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the regime's control over speech and business grew, while the American economy faced the disruption known as the China shock. The same Communist Party that rules the country directs its companies in strategic fields.
3. The challenge calls for a clear-eyed policy. That means protecting technology and supply chains for critical goods, deterring aggression against Taiwan, strengthening alliances in Asia and trading freely where it does not strengthen a rival. Conservatives debate how to mix these, and they agree on the stakes.

A realistic policy takes China's strengths seriously, protects what must be protected, and stays open to trade that serves both sides. Neither complacency nor panic is a plan.

The numbers

• China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, according to the WTO.
• The Department of Defense's China Military Power Report states that the People's Liberation Army Navy is the largest navy in the world by number of ships, according to the 2023 report.
• An international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China's claims to historic rights in the South China Sea had no legal basis, and Beijing rejected the ruling, according to the Permanent Court of Arbitration.

What they will say next

"Conflict would be catastrophic." Which is why deterrence matters. A strong posture reduces the chance of war by making an attack look costly.

"China is not seeking war." Its leaders state their intention to reunify with Taiwan, by force if necessary. Intentions can change with capabilities.

"The Thucydides trap means conflict is inevitable." It is not, and the idea should not be used as an excuse to concede ground.

"Decoupling would hurt Americans." It could raise prices, and selective measures focused on security fit that concern.

Trade with a rival is a choice to be made with open eyes.

"Chinese investment creates American jobs." Some does, and some comes with transfers of technology or ownership of strategic assets that security officials worry about. A screening process, such as review of foreign investment, can welcome the one and refuse the other.

Read more

• The China shock was real, and what free traders and tariff hawks each get right
• The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 Is Not a Treaty, So What Does It Promise
• The Shipbuilding Gap with China Is an Industrial Story Before a Navy Story
• An International Tribunal Ruled Against China in 2016 and Beijing Shrugged