Home
Hybrid
Light
Dark
Menu
Read
Blog
Constitution
Founders' Library
Debate Desk
Thinkers
Bookshelf
Glossary
Track
Scorecard
Debt Clock
Courts
Media Watch
By the Numbers
Flag Today
Predictions
Use
Your representatives
Civics Test
State Compare
School Choice
Veterans
Organizations
Shows & Podcasts
About
Advertise
Contact
Help Center
All
AI Mode
News / Articles
Web
Finance
Politics
Predictions
Weather
Maps
Shopping
Websites
Images
Videos
Privacy Policy
Your Privacy Choices
Terms of Use
Data Licensing
Accessibility
Install app (Android)
Add to Home Screen (iPhone)
Install
Close
Home
Blog
Polls and Forecasts
Polls and Forecasts blog
Latest coverage of this topic
All blog
Why the President's Party Almost Always Loses the Midterm, and the Exceptions
The president's party loses House seats in nearly every midterm. The arithmetic, three competing explanations, and what 1934, 1998 and 2002 had in common.
Jan 30, 2026