Welch, WV Weather

What Has Changed

Areas of patchy frost will be possible each night through the weekend mostly across the mountains and northern lowlands. 06z aviation forecast discussion updated.

Key Messages

1) Dry weather and comfortable temperatures for the next week. Dense valley fog will be possible each morning through the weekend as will areas of patchy frost across the mountains and northern lowlands.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure to our north will remain a solid influence over our weather pattern through the weekend and into next week. Dry weather is anticipated for the next seven days as a result. Temperatures will be fairly moderate and comfortable over the next week. High temperatures each afternoon will be around to slightly above the seasonable normal for the area with the lowlands reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s each day and the mountains staying in the 50s to mid 60s.

Low temperatures each night will drop into the 30s to mid 40s. The lower end of the range will be more common across the mountains, but these lower temperatures could creep into the northern and central lowlands Saturday and Sunday nights leading to some areas of patchy frost. The growing season is still active across the lowlands. Dense fog is expected to form each morning, particularly in the river valley and sheltered mountain valleys.

Dew points will be fairly dry each afternoon with 30s across the mountains and 40s in the lowlands. Relative humidity values will be in the comfortable to slightly dry range (40 to 60%) Friday and Saturday with a few valleys reaching the 20s and 30s. Warmer temperatures Sunday and Monday will cause drier RH values in the 30s and 20s across a decent chunk of the lowlands and mountain valleys. Recovery is expected each night though and winds will be calm to light through the period so fire weather concerns are low at this time.

A slow moving front will cross the area mid week and stall ahead of a cold front that will move through late next week. Currently, rain chances do not look to return until next weekend with the crossing of the cold front. However, fleeting chances for isolated showers are possible Thursday into Friday.

Aviation

VFR conditions due to high pressure will be prominent through the period, outside of dense fog formation across the river and mountain valleys between ~09z and ~14z this morning. IFR conditions or lower should be expected with any fog formation. Most likely sites to be impacted by fog this morning include, but are not strictly limited to CRW and EKN. VFR conditions expected area wide after fog lifts and scatters later this morning.

Winds will be calm across most of the area this morning, light and variable across the mountain ridges. Winds will be light (4-7 knots) and NE'rly this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and impacts caused by dense fog may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.