Mineral Wells, WV Weather

What Has Changed

No significant changes have been made to the forecast for the upcoming work week.

Key Messages

1) Dry weather and morning riverine fog will continue into the upcoming work week, with rain chances holding off until late next weekend.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

The 12Z objectively analyzed UA charts observed that the subtropical ridge, which is currently centered over the MS River Valley, has strengthened slightly compared to 24 hours ago, with geopotential heights now at 592 dam at 500 mb. The Omega Block is beginning to collapse due to a well-defined, positively-tilted shortwave trough that is ejecting over the Four Corners region. High temperatures for this afternoon and Monday were manually raised by a few degrees, as observations yesterday were slightly warmer than any of the NWP guidance; and this trend will hold as the subtropical ridge becomes centered over the Deep South by Monday evening. Otherwise, dewpoints were once again lowered to align closer to the drier MOS guidance; and pleasant fall weather will continue throughout the upcoming work week across the entire CWA. A weakening backdoor cold front will also sweep through the region during the day Tuesday and shift winds towards the northeast post-FROPA. The passage of this cold front will be rain-free; however, moistening of the boundary-layer will occur heading into Wednesday as the modified mP airmass trailing the cold front settles into the region. That said, high-level cirroform clouds will advect the region late Monday night, with the deck thickening heading into Wednesday as a remnant shortwave trough ejects over the Corn Belt. Overnight lows by the middle part of the week are forecast to be several degrees warmer compared to what has been observed recently, as the cirrus deck traps outgoing longwave radiation. Prospects for rain may return by late next weekend as the subtropical ridge deamplifies and restores cyclonic flow aloft.

Aviation

VFR conditions can be expected through the period with the exception of some late night early morning dense river valley fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H