Grafton, WV Weather

What Has Changed

557 AM Update... ~12z aviation forecast discussion update.

235 AM Update... No changes to the current forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the ~06z TAF period.

Key Messages

1) Dry weather and comfortable afternoon temperatures remain intact well into next week. Areas of dense fog are expected each morning. Patchy frost is also possible each morning through Monday.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure keeps the forecast largely unchanged. Dry weather and comfortable afternoon temperatures, especially with a gradual warming trend starting next week. The lowlands will be in the mid 60s to low 70s, with mid 70s by the end of the week. The mountains will be in the 50s to mid 60s. These temperatures are around to slightly above the normal for the season.

Dew points will be a bit on the drier side with the lowlands staying in the 40-50 range this week, while the mountains will be in the 30-45 range. This will lead to dry RH values in the 30-50% range each afternoon. Winds will be light or calm most of the week though, so fire weather concerns will be low.

Areas of dense fog is expected each morning through the week and patchy frost is also possible each morning through Monday, mostly across the mountain valleys, but the northern lowlands could see it Sunday night/Monday morning with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

A dry, backdoor cold front will approach the area Tuesday and park across our northern periphery. Rain chances may return by next weekend as a cold front approaches from the west.

Aviation

VFR conditions prevail by ~14z after valley fog lifts and scatters this morning. Sites impacted are CRW and PKB where IFR or lower could be possible.

Winds will be calm through the morning, then light and variable this afternoon. A SE'rly increase occurs this evening and overnight across the ridges of the mountains with gusts between 7 and 12 knots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and impacts from fog may vary this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.