Bon Air, VA Weather

What Has Changed

-No significant forecast changes/Discussions updated.

Key Messages

1) Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Elevated tidal anomalies continue through today with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

Discussion

As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued dry with seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

The latest WX analysis indicates an amplified upper level pattern, not quite an Omega block, but a strong enough upper level ridge across the central CONUS to keep the upstream troughing over the SW from getting east of the Plains states through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, light northerly flow aloft will continue across the local area through Sunday, before weak shortwave energy passes through and moves off the SE coast Sunday night. At the surface, strong high pressure (~1034 mb) is centered over eastern NY state and New England, ridging southward into the mid-Atlantic. The pressure gradient remains compressed over southern VA and the Carolinas, keeping the airmass mixed and milder than 24 hrs ago for most- temperatures are primarily in the 40s and 50s, though a few upper 30s are noted over the north closer to the sfc high. Any frost should be patchy at best through sunrise and confined to the northern piedmont.

The high continues to gradually build south and into the local area later today and tonight, but with a sfc trough of low pressure off the SE US coast, and somewhat lower heights aloft/weak shortwaves aloft through Sunday, expect a lot of shallow low level moisture to again lead to a period of partly- mostly cloudy skies late this morning and afternoon despite no rain chances. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but seasonable in the low-mid 60s north (and along the coast) and mid to upper 60s interior central and south. Breezy E-NE winds near the coast will continue, while winds inland will generally be ~10 mph or less. For tonight/Sunday morning, temperatures should be slightly lower with mid 30s NW and upper 30s to lower 40s for most of central and south-central VA. Patchy frost is expected for areas to the N and W of Richmond, though confidence for enough coverage to warrant a Frost Advisory is low and will let the dayshift make the call.

As the high continues to settle in from the north Sunday, clouds will tend to be a bit less, but SCT-BKN cumulus is still likely along and S of I-64. Temperatures warm a few degrees with highs in the mid 60s to near 70 F. Sunday night/Monday AM will likely see the greatest potential for a more widespread frost spreading east from the piedmont to interior SE VA as better decoupling is expected. Continue to go a few degrees colder than NBM, with mid 30s forecast for much of the piedmont and and mid-upper 30s for interior SE VA. Warmer Monday ahead of the next (dry) front, then slightly cooler into midweek and staying dry. The ECMWF ensemble chance for just .01" of rain through the end of the month is less than 10% for most of the CWA, with the GEFS only slightly higher.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated tidal anomalies continue through Saturday with nuisance to minor tidal flooding forecast.

Aviation

As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/24 TAF period with strong high pressure centered to the N-NE of the local area gradually building south through the weekend. Expect another round of BKN cumulus late this morning through the aftn with E-NE winds around 10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with gusts to ~20 kt along the coast. Model soundings suggest the CIGs later today should mainly be VFR at 3500-5000 ft.

Outlook: VFR conditions continue Sunday through the middle of next week. Forecast winds on Sunday will be similar, out of the E-NE and elevated near the coast in SE VA and NE NC, followed by lighter N to NE winds on Monday. Elevated NE winds return Tue- Wed.