Tahoka, TX Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Rain showers and a few storms arrive tonight and continue on- and-off through Sunday, mainly on the Caprock.

- Additional showers and storms are expected on Monday before drier weather returns during the middle of the week.

- Rain chances then return Thursday into next weekend.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The synoptic pattern at midday Saturday is similar to what has been observed over the past 24 hours or so, with southwest flow aloft in place over West TX between a high-amplitude ridge axis centered over the ArkLaTex and a now-closed low centered over western AZ. Water vapor imagery highlights a broad fetch of enhanced mid/upper level moisture within the southwest flow aloft originating from the eastern Pacific. However, stronger jet-level flow and forcing for ascent in general is still focused well to our west, and as a result we expect nearly all convective activity to remain confined to the terrain of NM through this evening. Some brief sprinkles are still possible near the state line, but a large majority of the region will remain dry through the rest of the day. Thicker cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler over the Caprock compared to farther east, with highs topping out near or just under 70 degrees west of I-27 this afternoon.

By late this evening, a line of showers/storms is expected to be positioned over eastern NM, but this activity will have quite a bit of trouble advancing farther eastward into our area given the lack of a strong westerly component aloft. Even so, we still expect that the outflow and a gravity wave or two propagating from this line will generate additional scattered showers over western portions of the Caprock late tonight, similar to what occurred last night. In addition, there is fairly good model consensus in a modest shortwave disturbance lifting into our area around sunrise, which should result in a further increase in coverage of showers over the remainder of the Caprock on Sunday morning. Pockets of locally heavy rain are still possible given the rich atmospheric moisture content (PWATs about 200% of normal), but the threat for flooding appears low. For now, it appears that the bulk of our rainfall potential on Sunday will be confined to areas on the Caprock during the morning hours, but the overall setup still favors potential for on-and-off showers mainly west of I-27 throughout the day. We also expect a respectable temperature gradient across the region, with highs struggling to exceed the low 60s near the TX/NM state line, and mid 70s possible off the Caprock.

Long Term

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

On Sunday night, the upper low will lift northeastward over the Four Corners, then eject into the central plains as a potent open trough on Monday. This evolution should result in another mainly linear cluster of showers and storms over NE NM which may make it into the SW TX Panhandle late Sunday evening before dissipating. Despite the progress of the upper low, moist and generally unsettled southwest flow aloft is set to persist over our region through Monday. This combined with another shortwave disturbance lifting overhead will likely bring another round of scattered showers and a few storms to the forecast area through Monday afternoon before a general drying trend takes place on Monday night. Warmer and drier weather is expected during the Tue-Wed timeframe as flow aloft weakens and becomes more zonal, and temperatures will again climb slightly above normal during the middle of the week. Thursday and beyond, model consensus supports a return to a somewhat more active pattern as deep cyclonic flow aloft overspreads much of the western CONUS. Details are scarce at this lead time, but this signals a return of rain chances for the end of the week into next weekend.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and low clouds are expected to move in to PVW/LBB late tonight into Sun AM, and linger through the rest of the period. Precip could start as early as 08z, but appears most likely between 12-18z. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely at PVW/LBB, and IFR is certainly possible - but did not go prevailing IFR with this TAF update. Thunder chances are non-zero, but too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF. At KCDS, precip chances are lower and arrive later in the period (Sun PM), and the MVFR ceilings are expected to stay off to the west. Southeasterly winds persist through the period.