Nocona, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue into early next week.

- A change in the weather pattern is expected by late next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and at least low rain chances.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Conditions across North Central Texas will remain unseasonably warm and dry through Sunday, as an amplified upper ridge continues to trek eastward from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Highs this afternoon will climb into the mid and upper 80s across most areas, under mostly sunny skies. These temperatures remain nearly 10 degrees above normal for late October.

On Sunday, a pronounced upper level low over the Four Corners region will begin to spread increasing high cloudiness across our area, possibly accompanied by an incursion of lower clouds over Central Texas from around daybreak through midday. The combination of decreasing geopotential heights ahead of the low to our west, along with the cloudiness, should help shave a few degrees off our highs for Sunday. It will still feel quite balmy, however, with values remaining several degrees above climatological norms.

Long Term

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The amplified low over the Four Corners this weekend will become an open wave and quickly zip northeastward into the Northern Plains by Monday morning. The southern fringes of this trough will brush North Texas, perhaps introducing some additional cloudiness on Monday. In the wake of this initial upper low, the Southern Plains will be under the influence of an energetic full latitude southwesterly flow regime through next weekend. Model solutions, particularly the Euro and Euro AI ensembles, advertise a fast, subtle shortwave moving from Baja California across North Texas by Tuesday. Neither lift nor moisture will be overly impressive with this feature, yet it may be sufficient to spawn some widely scattered showers across our far western counties during the afternoon. Virtually all of our forecast area will remain rain- free with this system.

A more concerted attempt at clouds and precipitation will occur in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe, as another weakly amplified trough moves out of Mexico across the Southern Plains. Deep layer moisture associated with this system will be fairly substantial, and model solutions depict sustained low and mid level isentropic lift across most of North and Central Texas Friday and Saturday. Rainfall probabilities will climb into the good chance to likely categories from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. While the end of the week and next weekend won't be a total washout, enough precipitation will be spread across this forecast period to potentially impact Halloween plans and other activites.

Day to day temperatures will remain above normal through most of next week, but will recede closer to typical late October values by next weekend.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites through 00z Sunday evening, as a departing upper level ridge continues to dominate much of Texas. Any cloudiness across the region will be limited for the most part to the high, thin cirrus variety through tonight and Sunday. However, a tap of low level Gulf moisture is expected to develop over Central Texas by late tonight, as low level southeastly flow increases just above the surface. This moisture may be sufficient to muster some scattered to broken MVFR cloudiness across Central Texas from 10z to 17z. While no cloud group was referenced in the Waco TAF, later forecasts may need to include a brief period of SCT-BKN020 at that location. At this time, no ceiling restrictions are anticipated in the D10 area through Sunday.

Southeasterly surface winds will persist at all TAF sites through Sunday, at speeds averaging 4 to 8 knots.