New Territory, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Slightly cooler with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs in the low 80s.

- Surface trough and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end chances for showers/storms starting Monday through the week.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas early in the week, likely triggering Caution or Advisory conditions for mariners through at least Tuesday.

Discussion

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Another cool and tranquil night is on tap across the region, with overnight lows dipping into the 50s inland and remaining in the upper 60s for the coastal counties and immediate coast. Light and variable winds, paired with a slight uptick in low-level moisture, will set the stage for patchy, low-lying fog toward sunrise.

Heading into Sunday, a plume of high-lvl cirrus clouds associated with upper-lvl troughing to our west will continue to spread eastward across our area. The resulting mostly cloudy skies should cap temperatures a few degrees cooler than today, keeping highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Despite the cloud cover, dry conditions will persist with low humidity, making for a comfortable (or pleasant) finish to the weekend.

Changes begin early next week as the mid-level ridge that has dominated our weather weakens or shifts eastward by Monday in response to multiple shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a gradual moisture return with PWATs increasing to the 1.1 to 1.5 inch range Monday into Wednesday as a sfc trough develops along the middle and lower TX coast. While widespread rain is not anticipated, this increase in moisture could trigger isolated to scattered showers or storms during the Monday-Tue time frame, mainly across our southwestern counties and adjacent Gulf waters... with coverage increasing further inland by mid-week.

By midweek and through the rest of the week, the pattern aloft transitions to a more zonal to southwesterly flow with the upper ridge anchored to our south and east. At the sfc, persistent east to southeasterly flow will maintain a steady transport of Gulf air into the region. Driven by this continuous moisture return (increasing PWs) and subtle weak impulses passing overhead, low-end chances for rain and storms will be possible through the end of the week.

Seasonal temperatures will remain to close out October, with daytime highs in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

Aviation

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions persist through this TAF cycle. With an increasing pressure gradient over our region, expect elevated SE winds this afternoon of 10-15 kts, especially for TAF sites along and south of I-10. More coastal TAF sites may see gusts beyond 15 kts during this period. Deeper into the evening and overnight hours, winds over inland TAF sites will become calm and VRB. There is a potential for early morning MVFR vis for our TAF sites outside of the Houston metro, but model confidence is not high enough to include them in the TAFs currently. By mid-morning tomorrow, winds increase out of the E/ESE, with locations along and south of I-10 seeing sustained winds of 10-15 kts once again.

JMG

Marine

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds (10 to 15+ kts), and seas around 2 to 4 ft will persist this afternoon and tonight. Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow will keep winds moderate to elevated at times, and seas around 5 to 7 ft through at at least Tuesday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions can be expected at times, with conditions reaching Advisory levels possible on Monday. Overall, expect moderate onshore winds and seas around 4 to 6 ft through the week along with a daily chance of showers/storms mainly offshore, and near the Matagorda Bay area.

Beach conditions: Will continue to monitor water levels as P-ETSS guidance suggests levels between 3.0 to 3.5 ft MLLW, particularly during times of high tide Sunday, and persisting through at least late Tuesday. Forecast shows values near 3.5 ft MLLW by Monday night and Tuesday night.

JM