Fair Oaks Ranch, TX Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 650 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Mild to warm conditions prevail this weekend into next week.

- Low (15-30%) rain chances late Monday through Tuesday.

- Details still to be ironed out but increasing rain chances entering Halloween weekend.

Short Term

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid-level ridging remains parked over central and east Texas early this afternoon, resulting in full sunshine and temperatures warming about 5-10 degrees above normal for late October. Thermal ridging at the 700mb level should break down by the second half of the weekend, but until then, we're expecting continued warm and dry conditions both today and Saturday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s for most locations. The Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will be slightly cooler, as highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night and Saturday night will both see increasingly warmer temperatures, however, slightly cooler air is expected to arrive starting Sunday.

Long Term

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Out west, a deepening trough over the Great Basin should finally push this stubborn ridging east of our region beginning Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly cooler starting Sunday as an increase in cloud cover due to southwesterly flow aloft and increased surface moisture as low level flow picks up out of the southeast. By Monday, this trough will eject quickly out over the High Plains, with a separate piece of energy lagging behind over north Texas Monday into early Tuesday. This shortwave should provide just enough lift to pop off some showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms primarily Tuesday morning through the afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, both the ECMWF and GFS, as well as their AI suites have advertised a weak frontal boundary working into the region Wednesday, but it is unlikely to have much impact on temperatures. What may actually have bigger implications for our weather looks to arrive by late next week and Halloween weekend. Medium range ensembles have continued to hone in on the potential for a stronger cold front either next Friday or Saturday as well as the potential for moisture from what is now Hurricane Vance to get dragged northward into south Texas.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Another mostly light wind day over I-35 has helped keep that area dry with sunny skies. The slow approaching upper trough to the west will show a more noticeable influence by tonight with better onshore winds and increasing humidities toward daybreak. Low clouds are expected to return again to DRT and also into the SSF/SAT areas between 08Z and 10Z. With this positive trend west of AUS, we'll take a late morning round of MVFR CIGS that will burn off there first. The other 3 sites could see the low CIGs below 3000 FT AGL through the early afternoon. Light streamer showers are depicted in some of the higher res data for mid- afternoon around SAT, but we'll hold off any mention in this update to see if there is any shift in trends.