Bay City, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Slightly cooler with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs in the low 80s.

- Surface trough and increasing Gulf moisture will bring low-end chances for showers/storms throughout the week.

- Moderate onshore winds and building seas early in the week, likely triggering Caution or Advisory conditions for mariners through at least Tuesday.

Discussion

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tranquil conditions will prevail overnight with light variable winds and partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, ranging in the mid 50s over the Piney Woods region, the upper 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. We could see a few areas with patchy fog developing during the early morning hours, but should burn off fairly quickly around sunrise.

An upper to mid level ridge will remain anchored over Southeast and East Texas, keeping nil rain chances through at least Sunday evening. Temperatures will lower again by Sunday, with highs back in the lower 80s range areawide. It will be a very lovely Sunday with winds at around 10 mph with a few gusts of around 20 mph along with lower dewpoints (40s and 50s) as a patch of dry air pushes in from Louisiana in the afternoon and evening. The patch of drier and slightly cooler air and light easterly winds, will grant us slightly cooler overnight temperatures, with lows ranging in the low to mid 50s over the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley region, the upper 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 60s along the coast.

Unfortunately, that dry airmass wont last too long over us, and low level moisture from the Gulf will work its way back into our coastal location by Monday morning. Meanwhile, an upper level trough tracks east across the Southern Plains, shifting the mid to upper level ridge over Louisiana. The proximity of ridge, however, will continue to limit rain development for much of the local area. The best location for showers to occur will be over the Matagorda Bay region and adjacent Gulf waters.

The chance for rain will expand a little further north on Tuesday as the upper level trough moves into the Central Plains, although showers will continue to be focused over the Matagorda Bay region. Rain chances will continue on Wednesday, as the mid level ridge shifts further east, over Southeast CONUS, and PWATs rise to 1.3 to 1.7 inches over much of the region. Moisture levels could be lower over the Piney Woods region, thus, highest chance for showers and thunderstorms are currently over areas west of I-45.

For the rest of the work week, a few weak disturbances will move overhead and cloud lead to isolated rain chances. Global models are still hinting at a possible cold front by the end of the month or the start of November.

Aviation

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions continue for all sites this morning with VFR prevailing through the period. Patchy fog is developing this morning; however, have yet to observe any impacts to terminals across SE TX. Winds will be light and variable through around 14-15Z, after which they will become ESE at around 10-15 knots for IAH and south. Northermost terminals will experience winds out of the ESE around 5-10 knots. Winds will become light and variable once more during the overnight hours into Monday.

Bailey

Marine

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate E to ESE flow will continue through early next week. Seas will continue to build to 4-6 feet on Sunday, possibly building to 6-7 feet offshore on Monday. Caution Flags will remain in effect through Monday night. Small Craft Advisory may be needed if the offshore seas reach 7 feet and/or winds become stronger than 20 kts. Winds relax on Tuesday although may hover around 15 kts at times. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday into Wednesday. We could see winds strengthen back to moderate during the second half of the week, keeping seas at 3-5 feet. Additional Caution Flags may be warranted.

Rain chances will return early next week as the ridge shifts east while surface moisture converges over the Western Gulf waters. Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day for much of the work week. Locally higher winds and seas could occur in and near strong storms.

Cotto