Central, TN Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Dry weather will continue through the middle of next week, as daytime highs prevail in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Elevated fire danger will continue, as vegetation remains dry and afternoon relative humidity remains low.

Discussion

(Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Another copy and paste evening currently progresses across the Mid-South with temperatures in the 50s to 60s. Clear skies and calm winds will give way to decent cooling once again into early Friday morning, with lows falling into the 40s to 50s. Very little changes to the overall forecast are expected for Friday, with an upper-level ridge continuing to build through the region. An unseasonably warm and dry air mass will remain, similar to the past few days, with high temperatures reaching the 70s to low 80s and dew point temperatures falling to the upper 30s to 40s. This will spell continued elevated fire danger concerns, so please continue to heed to any local burn bans and restrictions.

Into the upcoming weekend and next week, there are very little changes to the overall forecast as a dry weather pattern persists through at least the middle of next week. The aforementioned ridge will remain parked over the region Saturday, before eventually beginning to break down into next week. Over this timeframe, high temperatures will generally remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for the end of October. While we may still see a few locations reach into the low 80s on Saturday, Sunday onward we will likely see highs capped in the 70s as a slightly cooler air mass filters in. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s to low 50s through this period.

By the middle to end of next week, we may finally begin to see a pattern shift. There are still notable differences in LREF guidance with the timing and strength of a low pressure system out of the northwest U.S. Some guidance does bring a pattern shift back to more seasonable temperatures with precipitation finally returning, while others keep a dry and slightly warm forecast. As such, there is little confidence in the forecast near the end of the current forecast period, but there could finally be a potential end in sight to the copy / paste forecast we have seen recently.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Light NE winds will veer E towards the end of the period.

Fire Weather

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Elevated fire danger concerns will continue once again on Friday afternoon, with many locations falling below 30 percent relative humidity. However, current 10-hour fuel moisture forecasts do keep the entire Mid-South just above 10 percent, with most values in the 11 to 13 percent range. With minimum relative humidity being the only criteria to be reached based on the latest forecast, opted against an additional Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for now. If values do begin to come in lower or 20-foot wind speeds become elevated, which the increase in winds is not expected, then an RFD may be warranted Friday. Into the upcoming weekend and early next week, no precipitation is expected. However, some guidance does suggest that minimum relative humidity may increase above 30 percent, so we will continue to monitor the need for additional Fire Danger Statements based on the latest relative humidity forecasts and 10-hour dead fuel moisture on a day to day basis.