Narragansett Pier, RI Weather

What Has Changed

No meaningful changes to the forecast, with an extended stretch of quiet and dry weather ahead.

Key Messages

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England, potentially lasting through Halloween. Afternoon temperatures moderate through Monday, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday before milder weather returns late in the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England, potentially lasting through Halloween. Afternoon temperatures moderate through Monday, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday before milder weather returns late in the week.

If the forecast discussion starts sounding like a broken record over the next several days, you can thank strong high pressure for that! An extended stretch of dry weather is expected, with some day-to-day variability in temperatures, but otherwise not much excitement on the horizon. In fact, global ensembles paint a rather parched picture for southern New England, with cumulative probabilities of measurable precipitation (0.01 inches or greater) generally less than 10 percent through much of the upcoming week. Fingers crossed this dry pattern holds just a little longer and gives us a dry All Hallows' Eve! The next opportunity for precipitation may arrive toward the end of next weekend, as global guidance hints at a transition toward a more active weather pattern during the first week of November.

An expansive area of surface high pressure, around 1035 mb, remains anchored across the region. This will promote plenty of sunshine, light winds, and generally quiet conditions. Temperatures at 925 mb warm to +10C today and +14C Monday. This should support highs in the lower to middle 60s today, with some locations potentially reaching 70F Monday. A moisture-starved cold front approaches from the north- northwest Monday night into early Tuesday. However, persistent high pressure and dry air will likely limit the front to little more than some additional cloud cover and a cooler air mass. Highs return to the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday before potentially rebounding into the 60s Thursday through Saturday with return flow out of the west- southwest. DESI probabilities show low to moderate chances of highs Friday afternoon reaching 70F or higher, generally between 30 and 50 percent.

As for overnight temperatures, many locations are waking up to a frosty landscape this morning, with temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s. Similar conditions are possible Monday morning, although temperatures should be somewhat "warmer," with lows generally in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Overnight lows trend closer to seasonable levels in the 40s through much of the upcoming week, potentially reaching the middle to upper 40s by week's end. One exception may be Wednesday morning, when a cooler post-frontal air mass, combined with light winds and mainly clear skies, could allow temperatures to fall back into the 20s and lower 30s. Confidence remains somewhat lower given uncertainty surrounding cloud cover and winds, both of which could limit radiational cooling. Be sure to protect those mums and Halloween pumpkins!

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through Monday outside some very localized/brief early morning ground fog patches in the most prone locations. Light S-SW winds develop today at 4-8 knots with some localized weak seas breezes along the very immediate coast. Calm-light SW winds tonight shift to the W at 5-10 knots Monday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. A weak SE sea breeze expected for a few hours this afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.