Santa Teresa, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeast and east central areas today into tonight, but the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is subsiding.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northern New Mexico today.

- After dry weather mid week, showers, thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow are forecast during the latter half of the week.

Short Term

(Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Patchy fog is forecast in spots from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward until mid morning. Locations with pooling water on the ground from recent heavy rainfall will be favored for the fog, which will likely be dense and make travel hazardous in spots.

As the second in a series of two, back-to-back, storm systems that brought unprecedented flooding to parts of the forecast area exits the region to the northeast, a weaker tertiary disturbance will keep isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms going over the south central mountains, southeast, and east central areas today into the late night hours tonight. PWATs will continue to trend downward, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall is low. NBM 90th Percentile QPF suggest a few parts of the southeast plains could accumulate another 0.75" of rain, which could result in nuisance flooding where the ground is saturated from the recent rounds of heavy rain over the past few days.

Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast today through Wednesday night as an active storm track north of NM draws dry west and southwest flow over the forecast area. High temperatures will climb near 1991-2020 averages areawide starting Tuesday, then as much as 8 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains Wednesday.

Long Term

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

During the latter half of the week, models continue to depict an upper level low pressure system stalling over the Pacific NW coast. It will draw a rich return flow of Gulf moisture into the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage over southern areas Thursday afternoon, and areawide Thursday night through Friday night, as a couple of shortwave troughs cross NM in succession from the southwest. GEFS PWATs peak Friday and Friday night around 180-250 percent of normal, which is quite high. However, actual PWATs are only forecast to vary from 0.50-1.00" from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. The main wave of precip with the first shortwave trough will cross the southeast third of the forecast area Friday morning when the instability isn't very strong, so the risk of locally heavy rainfall will be minimal. Similarly, the main wave of precip with the second shortwave trough looks to cross Friday night and Saturday morning, limiting instability and the risk of locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures at 700 mb look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C Friday and Friday night, indicating the highest peaks over 10K feet will probably accumulate a few inches of snow.

There are significant differences in track, depth, and timing, but models generally depict a stronger and colder storm system tracking southeastward over the forecast area early next week with precip breaking out over western areas Saturday night, then becoming widespread across the forecast area on Sunday.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across western New Mexico with a few fair weather cumulus and increasing high cirrus clouds. In north central and eastern areas of the state, low ceilings are more prevalent with MVFR (1000 to 3000 ft) to IFR (500 to 1000 ft) ceilings, and localized VLIFR conditions at KLAM where ceilings are still at 100 ft. These cloud bases will lift some through the mid aftenroon, but ceilings likely will not fully disperse, especially across eastern New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop along and southeast of a KSRR to KSXU to KCAO line through the afternoon and overnight hours. Typical hazards of lightning, small hail, and gusty downburst winds will accompany any storms. Ceilings will lower again toward dawn Tuesday in these east central to south central areas, and patchy ground fog will also redevelop in low valley locations where saturated soils remain.