Santa Teresa, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 523 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact southeast and east central areas this evening.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northern New Mexico.

- After dry weather mid week, showers, thunderstorms, and very high terrain snow are forecast during the latter half of the week. A more substantial Pacific weather system arrives Sunday into Monday of next week.

Short Term

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1250 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The upper low that produced severe weather and flooding over multiple days across the Four Corners states has finally ejected northeastward into the central high plains. Farther to the south, a trailing shortwave trough has also been lifting northeastward out of Chihuahua and into west TX. This is keeping moisture over south central to eastern NM and west TX with enough instability for additional showers and thunderstorms. Overall, winds aloft are substantially lower in speed compared to recent days, reducing bulk shear, but earlier radar data indicated a lone storm tapping into sufficient kinematics for a strong updraft in Lincoln/Chaves counties where a notable hail core was visible that has since dissipated. This was modeled well by the REFS, and should be an isolated outlier with most cells being weaker and more of a garden variety. Showers and storms will redevelop through the evening, turning more showery or even drizzly through the overnight across south central to eastern zones. Patchy ground fog will also redevelop late tonight into Tuesday morning over areas of standing water, especially in lower elevation valleys.

A few batches of showers or drizzle may linger over southeastern zones through late Tuesday morning, and low clouds will slowly burn off and erode, giving way to mostly sunny skies through the afternoon. Upper level winds will turn more zonal with a weak and dry perturbation crossing NM before mid day. Temperatures will warm up a couple to a few degrees, reaching near normal in western zones and 5 to 10 degrees above in the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon.

Long Term

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1250 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The flow aloft turns more southwesterly into Wednesday, but stays dry with modest speeds (20-25 kt mean in the 500-700 mb layer). PWATs would stay in a 0.15 to 0.3 inch range across the northwestern half of NM Wednesday with the southeastern half struggling to hold onto 0.4 to 0.7 inch), and no sufficient lift would be present for convection.

The southwesterly flow aloft will back ever so slightly into Thursday, drawing in subtle rises in moisture and instability to the southern zones. The added kicker is another shortwave trough lifting north northeastward out of Chihuahua. Showers and thunderstorms will develop south of I-40 Thursday afternoon, expanding northward overnight. The deepest moisture (PWATs of 0.8 to 0.9 inch) looks to primarily stay along our southern tier of counties and farther south with more diffuse or modified moisture farther north. The shortwave will lift toward the eastern border of NM and west TX on Friday, carrying associated precipitation with it while some subsidence is introduced into central areas of the state. Farther west, another spoke of vorticity will be arriving into AZ and western NM Friday afternoon, potentially leading to another wave of scattered showers and thunderstorms that would then translate eastward across the state Friday night. Deterministic models have timing differences with the evolution of this Thursday-Friday time frame, so confidence is not overly high.

This would likely lead to some subsidence that would limit shower and storm activity into Saturday, but blended guidance retains some isolated to scattered coverage. By Saturday, the upstream focus will certainly be the Pacific Northwestern states where an inland-bound upper low will be arriving while a moist trough inches closer to the Baja peninsula via the subtropical jet. This looks to drag ample subtropical moisture into NM Sunday into Monday with a somewhat phased trough axis between the two features crossing NM. Much uncertainty still exists on the finer details, but a transient passage of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (and high elevation snow) looks to cross with increases in wind and reductions in temperatures.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across east central and southeast NM. These storms will be capable of brief MVFR cigs/vsbys and heavy rainfall. The threat for severe thunderstorms is diminishing. Most thunderstorms should end by 06-08Z, but a few showers may linger thereafter. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR cigs will fill back in across eastern NM, and may impact KSAF once again. Areas of fog will also return tonight in portions of northern and eastern NM. Low clouds and fog should diminish by 16-18Z Tuesday. A stray shower or thunderstorm may again develop across southeast or east central NM.