Navajo, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 559 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- A few storms may again turn severe over east-central and southeast areas through tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a lower risk of an isolated tornado.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northwest New Mexico.

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will return along and east of the central mountain chain through tonight, but the risk of flash flooding will extend westward to the continental divide of northwest New Mexico, and the West Central Highlands, due to saturated soil there.

Short Term

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A double-lobed low pressure system remains upstream of NM with one vorticity lobe over UT and the southern one in AZ. The latter will fill in some and lift northeastward across NM through the late afternoon, helping to spawn more showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern sections of our forecast area. PWATs have reduced to 0.3 to 0.5 inch over much of western NM, and storms will consequently be harder, but not impossible, to come by along and west of the Continental Divide. Much of central to eastern NM still hosts 30-50 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear, plenty for a few strong to severe cells. Instability will be highest this afternoon in the south central to southeastern zones with 1000-1750 J/kg of MUCAPE modeled, but some capping and low layer inhibition could keep this from fully being exploited. Portions of central to north central NM are still soggy from previous days' rainfall, so the Flash Flood Watch will be retained there, as just another 0.5 to 1.0 inch could cause problems in a few locales. The Flash Flood Watch was also expanded to portions of the Pecos valley. Confidence is lower (50-60% chance of flooding) in this eastern segment of the Watch, but this area did receive 1.0-2.5 inches overnight, saturating the soils. Storms will transition toward the eastern half of the forecast area late this evening and overnight with a concentration of storms depicted by the REFS in northeastern NM where some 1-2 inch rainfall totals are depicted through Monday morning. These northeastern zones have not received as much rain yet, so they were left out of the Flash Flood Watch for now. Overnight low temperatures will be a few to several degrees cooler tonight, particularly in western to north central zones where more clearing will occur, and isolated patches of ground fog will develop in low valleys and over areas of standing water.

The remnants of the upper low will lift northeastward into the central plains on Monday, leaving behind much lighter westerlies aloft. Western and central areas of NM will continue to dry out, but another shortwave trough will lift out of Mexico into the the permian basin of west TX and southeast NM. This will keep PWATs higher over our southeastern zones (0.8 to 1.0 inch) with additional showers and thunderstorms developing southeast of a Carrizozo to Santa Rosa to Clayton line on Monday. With less momentum aloft, the bulk shear will lower enough to inhibit any storms from turning severe, and storm motions will turn much slower. High temperatures will gain a couple to a few degrees, running near to slightly below normal Monday afternoon.

Long Term

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1251 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A few straggling light showers may linger into Tuesday morning across southeastern zones, but otherwise light west southwest flow aloft looks to continue into Tuesday and Wednesday with a slow cessation of showers and storms. Low layer moisture will try to hang on in southeastern zones with dewpoints modeled to stay in the 40's and 50's there, but elsewhere readings will reduce. High temperatures will trend closer to normal on Tuesday, inching slightly above on Wednesday.

Into Wednesday night, there is potential for the low layer southeasterly return flow to advect moisture a bit farther into the forecast area. This could be enhanced or work in tandem with another shortwave trough coming out of Chihuahua, possibly leading to showers and thunderstorms over south central to southeastern zones Thursday. A gradual and subtle increase in PWATs (only 0.5 to 0.8 inch) will lead to broadening coverage of showers and storms through Friday before retreating under more subsident flow on Saturday. All eyes will then be focused on the next upstream Pacific Northwest low that will move inland on Sunday. There are uncertainties with the eastward progression of the main low among deterministic models, and it should also be noted that a strengthening of the subtropical jet is indicated, potentially leading to an ingest of more subtropical moisture that could lead to a more active stretch of weather Sunday through Monday. Precipitation would be more transient with the upper low staying in quick propagation due to the polar and subtropical jet tethering.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening across much of the area, before becoming more focused across eastern NM overnight. Locally heavy rainfall in the stronger storms may result in MVFR cigs/vsbys. A few severe storms may result in large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado, mainly east of the Central Mountain Chain. Additionally, widespread low clouds across eastern NM will fill back in and lower overnight. MVFR to IFR cigs will prevail, with localized areas of BR. Localized areas of BR will also be possible across western and central NM overnight. A less active day is expected on Monday, but showers and thunderstorms are still expected to impact east central and southeast NM in the afternoon.