El Cerro Mission, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 521 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Flash flood risk continues in western New Mexico today, spreading eastward into central New Mexico tonight through Saturday. Heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely over eastern and portions of New Mexico this weekend with a risk of flash flooding.

- There will be a risk of severe storms producing large hail and damaging winds over western New Mexico today, then over central areas Friday.

- Rainfall over northwest New Mexico this week will create rises on tributaries as well as main stem rivers such as the San Juan and Animas. River flooding is possible.

Short Term

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The upper low is currently moving into SoCal, steering a slug of rich Pacific moisture into AZ and NM. The 18Z KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 1.08", which is another calendar day record and supportive of torrential rainfall rates given sufficient instability and forcing from the approaching upper low. The Flood Watch will remain as is for now, although following shifts will be evaluating A Flash Flood Watch for Ruidoso and portions of the eastern plains for Friday night through Saturday night. In addition to the flood threat, a notable severe/tornado threat will continue into this evening across western NM and then shift east and focus across central NM Friday. A Tornado Watch is in effect for far western NM through 9PM MDT this evening, where there is sufficient low level shear in concert with 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50kts and muCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg. Although large hail and damaging wind probabilities are higher, tornadoes can not be ruled-out. Instability and shear trend up in central NM on Friday relative to today and the SPC has upgraded the marginal risk to a slight risk for severe storms on the day 2 convective outlook, which includes the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros. The higher probabilities for severe storms will be further south over Socorro County on Friday, where muCAPE values are forecast to reach 2000J/kg. A jet maxima diving down the backside of the mean upper trough will bring a 2nd upper low, forecast to close off and progress southeast across SoCal and into southwest AZ Friday night. This forecast evolution should bring sufficient widespread forcing back to keep convection going through Friday night, with a focus across central and eastern NM, although modeled instability is unimpressive.

Long Term

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The forecast for this weekend is trending even wetter across central and eastern NM due to the slow southerly track of the 2nd upper low across AZ, eventually lifting northeast toward the Four Corners late Sunday. The latest NAM is notably slower to lift the upper low out of south central AZ, so unlike the GFS it allows a backdoor front to slide into northeast NM late Saturday, which helps to force more precipitation across north central and northeast areas through Sunday. Both PWATs and instability trend down over the weekend relative to today/Friday, and so should the flood threat. However, we still may need a watch for the Ruidoso area for Sat/Sun due to burn scar sensitivity and possibly the eastern plains due to the potential for training storms and interaction with a potential backdoor cold front. Daytime temperatures will trend down over the weekend and be below average areawide by Sunday. The upper low is forecast to eject east out of the southern Rockies on Monday, bringing some drying to much of the area. However, sufficient PWATs and low level moisture convergence will remain across the eastern plains for a few more showers and storms. Some warming/drying is forecast early to mid next week behind the departing upper low, but there is some model spread of note. The subtropical jetstream is forecast to get active over the region by late week, bringing back moisture and chances for showers and storms.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Widespread impacts to the airspace are ongoing over central and western NM with heavy storms, frequent lightning, hail, strong winds, and torrential rainfall. Lcl IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys are likely in the heaviest storm cells. This large area of storms will move east into the RGV thru tonight while dissipating to more showery type precip. Low cigs will continue overnight in many areas of northern and western NM as precip tapers off. Another round of widespread SHRA/TS will develop Friday after 11AM but focused more within central and eastern NM. Activity will be strong again with more severe storms and heavy rainfall likely.