Hayes Center, NE Weather

Key Messages

- Conditions will be wet across the forecast area with precipitation likely tonight into Monday.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected Monday night through Thursday night with only minor chances for precipitation in eastern areas Tuesday night.

- The threat for precipitation will increase Friday into next weekend with high temperatures Wednesday through Friday generally in the 60s.

Synopsis

Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A highly amplified pattern continued this morning across the CONUS and Canada. High pressure was located over the northwestern gulf. Ridging extended north-northeast of this feature into lower Michigan. East of this feature, a trough of low pressure was present over the northwestern Bahamas into central Cuba. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was located over central Utah with a trough extending south into southern Arizona. Upstream of this feature was a closed low just off the coast of Washington State. Current WV imagery this afternoon indicates a broad plume of Pacific moisture from Mexico north into the high plains of New Mexico, west Texas and the central high plains of Colorado western Kansas and western Nebraska. At the surface this afternoon...a stationary front was situated from central Iowa into far southeastern Nebraska and south central Kansas. This front was sandwiched between high pressure over the Ohio Valley and high pressure over the Canadian Prairie. A broad area of showers was situated along highway 83 this afternoon, with additional activity noted over western Kansas. Skies were cloudy and temperatures as of 2 PM CDT, ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 46 degrees at Ogallala.

Short Term

Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper level low pressure will track from southwestern Wyoming into far northwestern South Dakota Tonight through Monday. Southeast of this low's track tonight, broad isentropic lift across the entire forecast area will develop and continue through the morning hours on Monday. This lift will gradually shift north and northeast Monday afternoon, so by 00z Tuesday, isentropic upglide will be confined to extreme northeastern portions of the forecast area. This lift will quickly push east overnight Monday night with dry conditions expected after Monday evening in the northeast.

With respect to precipitation amounts across the area. Looking at the latest NBM ensembles probabilities for 24 hour QPF ending at 7 PM CT Monday evening there is a 100 percent chance of at least a quarter inch of QPF across the entire forecast area. When the threshold is increased to 0.50", the probability of at least that amount is above 80 percent north and east of a line from Oshkosh to Hayes Center. When the threshold is increased to 1.00" the probability of reaching that amount is 80% or better east of a Brady to Valentine line. With the probabilistic numbers being this high, widespread categorical pops as initialized in the NBM remain on track.

With respect to lows tonight and Monday night: The latest NBM this morning continued to be well below the MET and MAV guidance for lows. With widespread cloud cover expected tonight, feel temperatures will be warmer than the NBM initialization and utilized a 50/50 mix of NBM and MAV guidance for lows tonight. With this change, upper 20s lows were eliminated from western areas tonight. This will figure in the PTYPE forecast and more on that below. For Monday night, lows were also trended upward from the NBM. Light winds, weak high pressure and a saturated boundary layer indicates good potential for fog Monday night. Low ceilings and fog are already indicated in the NAM12 (low ceilings) and 12z HRRR (Fog). Lows Monday night reflect a blend of MAV and NBM guidance.

As mentioned above, lows were trended warmer tonight. Even with boost in lows, temperatures briefly reach the lower 30s over the northwestern forecast area early Monday morning. After an extensive look at model forecast soundings, a mix of rain or snow cannot be ruled out, especially over northern Sheridan and far northwestern Cherry County. In these areas, inserted a rain snow mix for a couple of hours Monday morning. With a lack of dry air with this system, feel near surface wet bulb zeros will remain in the lower to middle 30s overnight. If we see a brief total changeover to all snow, warm ground conditions (4" soil temps this morning were around 50 degrees in northern Sheridan County) should confine any light accumulations to grassy surfaces. Will word the forecast little or no accumulation and am expecting any snow will melt off by midday. Will pass on my concerns to the evening shift and have them monitor temperature trends. If we do trend cooler, snow amounts may need to be increased.

Long Term

Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

On the heels of the exiting system Monday, a northern stream disturbance will pass to the north of the forecast area over the Dakotas. A second disturbance will track from Kansas into SE Nebraska. This will bring a chance of showers to far southeastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday evening. Clouds and fog are anticipated Tuesday morning across the area. By afternoon locations in the western portion of the forecast area will see some west or southwest winds which will lead to clearing skies Tuesday afternoon. Further east, skies should remain mostly cloudy and will have an impact on highs. Readings will range from the upper 50s over eastern portions of the forecast area with highs in the middle 60s in the west and northwest. A low amplitude pattern will commence across the western CONUS midweek. This will lead to mainly dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures for the high plains. The pattern will begin to amplify Thursday night into Friday as low pressure deepens over the Pacific NW. Downstream of this feature, a southern stream disturbance will lift from the SW CONUS into the southern plains. As this system crosses into Kansas and Oklahoma Friday, there will be an increased threat for precipitation mainly over the eastern half of Nebraska. Temperatures will be mild for Wednesday through Sunday with highs generally in the 60s.