Butte, NE Weather

Key Messages

- Dense fog is expected this morning, especially along and south of I- 80 and into portions of central Nebraska. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from 4 AM to 11 AM CDT for these areas.

- Well above-normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70s and 80s. Strong southerly winds are expected Friday, with gusts up to 50 mph possible, along with increasing precipitation chances Friday into Friday night.

- Showers and thunderstorms return for this weekend and persist into early next week, leading to the potential for widespread rainfall accumulations.

Short Term

Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

This morning, low-level moisture advection will persist across the region as a southern-stream trough begins moving into the Desert Southwest. Increasing southeasterly low-level flow will support additional moisture transport into the area, with dense fog expected to develop, particularly across southwestern and southern Nebraska. Looking at short-term guidance and BUFKIT soundings, deep saturation within the lowest 75 to 100 mb, combined with light winds and a low- level inversion, has increased confidence in fog development. Given these conditions, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT for Chase, Hayes, Frontier, Perkins, Lincoln, Keith, Logan, and Custer Counties, where confidence is highest in visibilities falling to one-half mile or less. Fog should gradually dissipate by late morning as daytime heating promotes boundary-layer mixing. By late morning into the early afternoon, the upper-level ridge across the central United States will continue to amplify, supporting increasing warm air advection across the region. This warm air advection, combined with clearing skies and 850-mb temperatures in the 15 to 20C range, should allow afternoon highs to reach the middle to upper 70s across much of the area, with lower 80s possible across southwest Nebraska. Given the warmer temperatures observed Wednesday, particularly across southwest Nebraska, have trended toward the warmer end of guidance for afternoon highs. Along with the warmer temperatures, a tightening surface pressure gradient ahead of the approaching southern-stream trough will support increasing southerly flow across the region. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with gusts up to 35 mph possible, particularly across portions of the Sandhills. Thursday night, continued low-level moisture transport and a strengthening low-level jet will help maintain warm air advection and limit nocturnal cooling. Overnight lows are expected to remain in the middle to upper 50s across much of the area, more than 20 degrees above average for late October.

Friday morning, the stronger southerly winds and increased low-level mixing should limit the potential for fog development compared to the previous several mornings. Through the day Friday, the southern- stream trough will gradually progress eastward, with strengthening southwesterly flow aloft becoming established across the central Plains. As the trough approaches, increasing cyclonic vorticity advection and upper-level divergence will support height falls and the development of lee-side surface low pressure across Wyoming into Montana. The strengthening surface low will result in a tightening pressure gradient across the region, supporting increasing southerly to southeasterly winds through the day. The strongest winds are expected Friday afternoon, with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 45 to 50 mph possible across much of the area. Recent model guidance, along with the expected synoptic pattern and strengthening low-level jet, continues to support the potential for stronger winds, particularly across central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Confidence is increasing in a windy Friday, though the magnitude of the strongest gusts will depend on the depth of boundary-layer mixing and the amount of momentum available for downward transport. In addition to the stronger winds, continued warm air advection will allow 850-mb temperatures to increase into the 17 to 25C range. BUFKIT soundings suggest sufficient boundary- layer mixing to support afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the area. The warmest temperatures are expected across southwest Nebraska, where deeper mixing may allow highs to reach the middle 80s. Fire weather concerns may increase Friday afternoon, particularly across western and southwestern Nebraska, where minimum relative humidity values could approach 25 percent. While these values currently appear marginal for critical fire weather conditions, the combination of warm temperatures and strong southerly winds may support at least localized elevated fire weather concerns. Confidence remains limited regarding the overlap of the lowest relative humidity values and strongest winds, which will be an important factor in determining the overall fire weather threat. In terms of precipitation, increasing southwesterly flow aloft and upper-level divergence ahead of the approaching trough, combined with precipitable water values around 150 to 250 percent of normal, will support increasing precipitation chances Friday into Friday night. Additional ascent associated with the approaching cold front and increasing low-level convergence may provide sufficient forcing for shower development, particularly across western and northwestern portions of the forecast area. Given the favorable moisture transport and increasing large-scale ascent, current model guidance may be underestimating precipitation coverage. As a result, have increased PoPs across western and northwestern portions of the area. However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of precipitation, and trends will be monitored over the next several forecast cycles.

Friday night, an approaching cold front will result in a temperature gradient across the forecast area. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the lower to middle 40s across northwestern Nebraska, while central and eastern portions of the area remain warmer, with lows generally in the middle to upper 50s.

Long Term

Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

By Saturday morning, the surface cold front will clear the area off to the southeast, and will be positioned from western Kansas through eastern Nebraska. This brings increasing cold advection in its wake, bringing much cooler highs than in previous days. Temperatures Saturday afternoon range from the low 50s across northwest Nebraska to the 60s in southwest Nebraska. Modest isentropic ascent in the 300-305K layer aloft should be enough to promote increasing shower coverage by Saturday afternoon, mainly across southwest into central Nebraska. This is in response to increasing warm advection aloft, in advance of deep upper low pressure beginning to slowly eject east out of the Four Corner region. This precipitation then looks to persist through much of the day Sunday, as the parent upper low finally begins to eject into the Plains by Monday morning. The system will have a deep tap to Gulf moisture, promoting PWAT values climbing to above the 99th percentile climo for late October. This, combined with the slow motion of the upper dynamics, suggests a somewhat long duration efficient rainfall event across much of the area. Meager elevated instability is also expected to overspread the area Sunday night into Monday, suggesting some threat for a embedded thunderstorms and further enhanced rainfall rates. These showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday morning, before the upper low begins to eject overhead and lends to lessening precipitation coverage from west to east through the day. Increasing spread exists with respect to surface features by Monday, with a split in deterministic guidance with respect to cold frontal passage and the arrival of colder and drier air. Regardless, the consensus remains that there is little to no concern for mixed p-types, as temperatures aloft remain warm enough to support rain through the expected end of the precipitation.

As for totals, guidance continues to come into better agreement with respect to a swath of significant (0.5-1"+) accumulations for a large portion of southwest into central and north central Nebraska. In fact, NBM probabilities continue to creep upwards, with probabilities of >1" now as high as 60-75% for areas roughly along and east of an Imperial to Ainsworth line. This is further supported by ensemble means, with the entirety of the 0Z EPS, GEFS, and CMCE ensemble suite painting QPF means in excess of 1" in roughly the same corridor. The EFI also continues to trend upwards with respect to anomalous QPF, with and EFI of ~0.6-0.7 and an SOT >0 across southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. To sum this all up, confidence is continuing to increase in a very beneficial rainfall event, with much of southwest into central and north central Nebraska seeing accumulations of 0.5-1"+ through Monday.

As the surface cold front finally clears the area by Tuesday, all precipitation is expected to end across the area. Briefly drier conditions then prevail into midweek, though guidance suggests a quick return to southerly flow across the area by Tuesday afternoon. This will allow for temperatures to begin to moderate somewhat, and highs will return back to the lower 60s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Aviation

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Low stratus and patchy dense fog persists through mid-morning for portions of southwest into central and north central Nebraska, leading to periods of IFR/LIFR CIGs and visibilities. This stratus and fog ends quickly by late morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through tomorrow morning for all terminals.

Winds quickly increase from the southeast late this morning, with gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for all terminals this afternoon. Winds then remain southeasterly tonight, at 10 to 20kts.