Jefferson City, MO Weather

Key Messages

- Seasonably warm and predominantly dry conditions will persist through next week.

Short Term

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

An upper-level ridge will remain over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, locked in place by an Omega Block spanning much of the CONUS. With very little change at the surface and low levels including a lack of substantial advection, temperatures will remain steady in the 70s to near 80 for highs and in the mid-40 to low-50s F for lows. The only thing of note otherwise is increasing, thicker upper-level clouds overspreading the region Sunday and Monday.

Long Term

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Global model guidance is coming into a better agreement that the Omega Block will only ebb and flow in strength next week, keeping the Mid-Mississippi River Valley in southwesterly to broadly anticyclonic flow near the ridge as it shifts slightly eastward. The main impact of multiple upper-level troughs rounding the ridge will be waves of upper/mid-level clouds, but ensemble model probabilities of measurable rainfall are 20 to 40 percent in northeastern/central MO and west-central IL late Tuesday onward where forcing/moisture and wavering front clipping the area could be sufficient for a few brief periods of light showers. However, the consensus is that predominantly dry conditions and continued seasonably warm temperatures will persist through at least Friday with the NBM interquartile range of temperatures contracting at the expense of a warming trend in the 25th percentile.

The big question is: when does the Omega Block break down? There are some signals that at least increasing moisture return and continued passages of upper-level troughs in the southwesterly flow will be enough for increasing probabilities of measurable rainfall next weekend of 60 to 80+ percent. However, confidence is much lower that the pattern undergoes a significant change, with the breakdown of the Omega Block being delayed further and further into the future with successive model iterations.

Aviation

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Dry and VFR flight conditions will persist along with light, mainly southeasterly winds. Patchy river valley fog is possible again Sunday morning, but confidence is low in any TAF sites being impacted.