Saint Paul Park, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Multiple chances for rain through next week. Heaviest rainfall amounts expected across western and central MN Monday and Monday night.

- Following a cooldown early in the period, the forecast is trending warmer later in the week.

Discussion

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Widespread light rain has developed across west central MN with a few showers extending to the southeast into the Mankato and Albert Lea areas. Coverage of this rain is far exceeding model output, but a dry boundary layer should limit most rainfall totals to a tenth of an inch or less. Coverage will decrease this evening but occasional light rain is expected across the region, particularly across western MN.

An upper low over the Four Corners region this afternoon will advance to SD Monday afternoon. As it approaches, rain coverage will increase across the central Plains to southern and western MN by tonight. The surface low will track from eastern NE to central MN Monday into Tuesday. This is a shift to the east from yesterday. The best moisture transport will be confined to MN and is where the best chances for a soaking rain is forecast. Rainfall totals of around an inch are likely across western and central MN with amounts tapering off to the southeast. The system will exit to the north early Tuesday. Another disturbance will quickly follow Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the next chance for showers. Amounts with this round will be lighter - a quarter inch or less.

A ridge will remain parked over the southeastern U.S. through the rest of the forecast period. Surface high pressure building into the northern Plains will lead to a drier forecast Thursday, but moisture will increase on the backside of the high Friday and into the weekend. Predictability beyond midweek remains low with considerable spread in the guidance.

Temperatures will be cool Monday, but then will warm back to the 60s and quite possibly 70s from Tuesday onward. Given the current forecast numbers, it appears MSP will finish this month as the 2nd warmest October on record.

Aviation

Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Forecast remains on track with MVFR SHRA/RA to move from SW to NE through the course of tomorrow morning. In the near term areas of rain showers continue to fall near AXN and STC northward. This area of showers will move off to the NE over the next couple of hours. Skies will remain overcast at low-VFR heights overnight. The next round of rain should begin appearing on radar near MKT and RWF as early as 07-12z however, surface dry air could cause a lag to when precip actually falls. Saturation from latest forecast soundings look to be reached after 13z for those sites, while remaining sites see better saturation closer to 18z. Thus, have upgraded previous prob30 groups to prevailing SHRA/RA mentions. Sites can expect to remain at least MVFR and potentially IFR categories for low cigs for the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight before shifting northeast tomorrow morning, then east by the afternoon at a speed between 7-10kts.

KMSP...Adjusted timing for the arrival of SHRA to msp to reflect latest hi-res guidance. A surface dry layer will limit most precip reaching the tarmac monday morning. After 18z, the profile becomes saturated to where MVFR RA will prevail through the rest of the period. It is possible that IFR cigs could be realized late evening tomorrow but lacked confidence to include IFR mentions this period. N winds tonight shifting NE tomorrow morning then shifting again to the east by the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...Chc morning -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G20kts. WED...Chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15kts. THU...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.