Saint Michael, MN Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather continue through at least Friday.

- Rain chances and normal temperatures return this weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

TODAY...There is quite the range in regional temperatures this morning, with parts of western Minnesota still sitting in the low 50s while some spots in west-central Wisconsin are plummeting to the low 30s already. There is also seemingly random 10 degree differences over short distances all across the area. For example, KLVN in Lakeville is sitting at 45F at 2AM and KMSP is at a balmy 55F. Maybe that example is influenced by the urban heat island, but you can find more examples of that spread all over this morning. This is likely showing the battle between southerly winds advecting warm air northwards and clear skies facilitating efficient radiational cooling (strength varying based on location). All that to say, some folks will be waking up to chilly temps this morning. Winds will not increase too drastically today, though the persistent southerly flow and sunny skies will bump highs up a couple degrees from yesterday.

THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...Temperatures will run a good 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid-October (meaning highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s). Both Thursday and Friday have a shot at exceeding 80 degrees for locations along the Buffalo Ridge. Southeasterly winds will increase for Friday and Saturday ahead of a developing low pressure system over southern Canada. A cold front is expected to swing through the region on Saturday, though not before it loses much of its umph. The southerly flow will help increase PWATs to a little over an inch (which is almost 3 times normal for mid October), so there will certainly be enough moisture to tap into. The overall lack of strong forcing though will likely limit precip amounts to a couple tenths at most as the rounds of showers move through this weekend.

SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...The pattern changes and our late summer-like weather comes to an end next week. The highs next week will be similar to what our lows are like this week. And lows drop into the 30s, with many areas across the north likely seeing sub- freezing temps again as we near the end of October. Rain chances linger to start the week, though it depends on how far south that front is able to drop.

Aviation

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR is expected at all terminals the entire period. Have removed the TEMPO for BR at STC Wednesday morning as CAMs have trended lower with the possibility of fog. A few clouds near 5000 feet are possible over south-central MN and western WI during Wednesday morning. South-southeasterly winds will be near or under 5 knots at the start of the period before gradually slowing and becoming variable during the daytime hours Wednesday. Winds will trend to northeasterly Wednesday evening but still be under 5 knots.

KMSP...VFR expected the entire period, though fog is a better possibility Wednesday night. However, confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts. FRI...VFR. Wind SSE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-15G25kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.